Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KAI-TAK [HELEN]

for Friday, 17 August 2012 [3:41 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 13, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on KAI-TAK (HELEN).

KAI-TAK MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON KAI-TAK (HELEN) UPDATE NUMBER 015
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Fri 17 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon KAI-TAK (HELEN) about to make landfall over Leizhou Peninsula...intensified slightly. Typhoon Conditions now being felt across the peninsula and nearby areas of Westren Guangdong incl. Northernmost Hainan Island.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Leizhou Peninsula and Guangdong Province should closely monitor the progress of KAI-TAK (HELEN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri August 17, 2012
Location of Eye: 20.9º N Lat 110.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 50 km (SE) closer to Zhanjiang, China
Distance 2: 98 km (NNE) closer to Haikou, Hainan
Distance 3: 190 km (N) closer to Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 4: 193 km (NE) closer to Danzhou, Hainan
Distance 5: 333 km (WSW) away from Macau
Distance 6: 394 km (WSW) away from Hong Kong
Distance 7: 509 km (E) closer to Hanoi, Vietnam
Distance 8: 1080 km (WNW) away from Laoag City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 130 kph (70 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph (85 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Leizhou Peninsula
CPA [ETA] to Leizhou Peninsula: Friday Noon [12PM PHT]
NOAA 6-12hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 130 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

KAI-TAK (HELEN) is expected to continue moving generally WNW throughout the forecast period, with some fluctuations in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of KAI-TAK will make landfall over the northern part of Leizhou Peninsula this afternoon...and will move across the Gulf of Tonkin, very near the shores of Western Guangdong tonight. The cyclone will make its final landfall over the Vietnamese-Chinese Border around midnight of Saturday and traverse the rugged terrain of Northern Vietnam through Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 130 km/hr (70 knots) with higher gusts. Some decrease in strength will be expected later today...and KAI-TAK will weaken into a Tropical Storm Saturday...dissipate into an area of Low Pressure on Sunday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles). KAI-TAK is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Just a Tropical Storm (TS)...moving across the northernmost part of Northern Vietnam...about 115 km NNE of Hanoi City [11AM AUG 18: 22.0N 106.1E @ 95kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Dissipates along the Chinese-Vietnamese Border...just an area of Low Pressure...about 379 km WNW of Hanoi City [11AM AUG 19: 22.5N 102.5E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - just along the shores of Leizhou Peninsula. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting the northern part of Leizhou Peninsula. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Southern & Western Guangdong particularly the rest of Leizhou Peninsula and Northern part of Hainan Island. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-118 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Northern Vietnam, Rest of Guangdong and Southern part of Hainan Island. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
6-12HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to moderate rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 130 mm (moderate to high) along areas near the center of Kai-tak (Helen) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Leizhou Peninsula including Hainan Island. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern China, Taiwan & Vietnam (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY KAI-TAK (HELEN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Kai-tak's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on Typhoon KAI-TAK (HELEN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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