Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS TEMBIN [IGME]

for Friday, 24 August 2012 [9:03 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 20, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on TEMBIN (IGME).

TEMBIN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORN TEMBIN (IGME) UPDATE NUMBER 015
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 24 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

TEMBIN (IGME) has weakened into a Tropical Storn after interacting with the mountains of Southern Taiwan. Tropical Storm Conditions continuing across Southern & Western Taiwan.

TEMBIN together with Typhoon BOLAVEN will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and affect Palawan, Visayas, Western Mindanao, Western Luzon incl. Metro Manila tonight until the weekend. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy and windy conditions w/ scattered to passing occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough.

Meanwhile, Typhoon BOLAVEN (JULIAN) strengthened further...now a Category 4 system...will not directly affect any part of the Philippines. Check out the latest details on this system at the TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH section of this page.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Southern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of TEMBIN (IGME).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu August 23, 2012
Location of Center: 22.2� N Lat 119.6� E Lon
Distance 1: 85 km (SW) away from Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 298 km (SE) away from Xiamen, China
Distance 3: 326 km (ESE) closer to Shantou, China
Distance 4: 276 km (NW) away from Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 312 km (NW) away from Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 286 km (SW) away from Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 7: 372 km (SSW) away from Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 8: 378 km (NW) away from Calayan Island
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Southern Taiwan-Batanes Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 510 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TEMBIN (IGME) is expected to move slowly SW to Southward during the next 12 to 48 hours...and will make a counter-clockwise loop and move ENE to NE-ward through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TEMBIN will slow down while over the West Philippine Sea...and will move East to ENE back towards the Southern tip of Taiwan on Monday. The u-turn track of TEMBIN is mainly due to the direct interaction with Typhoon BOLAVEN which is dictating Tembin's motion.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength will be expected during the next 2 to 3 days...and TEMBIN will regain Typhoon status on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 270 kilometers (145 nautical miles) from the center. TEMBIN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY EVENING: Moving slowly into the West Philippine Sea...regain Typhoon status...about 276 km SW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [6PM AUG 25: 21.5N 117.9E @ 130kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Completed its counter-clockwise loop...starts to move ENE back towards Southern Taiwan...about 250 km SW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [6PM AUG 26: 20.9N 118.7E @ 150kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Starts interacting with the larger Typhoon Bolaven...accelerating NE-ward...approaches the Southern tip of Taiwan...about 94 km SSE of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [6PM AUG 27: 21.8N 120.6E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (West Philippine Sea)...possible "Eye" reforming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-140 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Western & Southern Taiwan. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Taiwan, the tiny island group of Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Ishigaki and Yaeyama Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 510 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Tembin (Igme) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern & Western Taiwan. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon, Southern China and the rest of Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Meanwhile, Typhoon BOLAVEN (JULIAN) has intensified into a Category 4 system as it moves NNW while over the open waters of the Philippine Sea. Its center was located about 1140 km ENE of Basco, Batanes (22.0N 132.9E)...with maximum sustained winds of 215 kph with higher gusts and was moving NNW @ 15 kph towards Okinawa-Ryukyus Area. This system will not directly affect any part of the Philippines To view the latest information on this storm kindly click and visit this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with some isolated to scattered showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, VISAYAS, and LUZON incl. METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY TEMBIN (IGME)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Tembin's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS TEMBIN (IGME)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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