Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 14W [HELEN]

for Monday, 13 August 2012 [1:52 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 13, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on KAI-TAK (HELEN).

KAI-TAK MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAI-TAK (HELEN) UPDATE NUMBER 002
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 13 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Depression 14W (HELEN) nears Tropical Storm strength as it continues to move westward closer to Extreme Northern Luzon...now internationally known as KAI-TAK - named after the old HK international airport, pronounced as "kai-dug".

Meanwhile, KAi-TAK will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across the Western Sections of Luzon incl. Metro Manila beginning tonight or Tuesday. Mostly cloudy conditions w/ scattered to passing occasional showers, rains & thunderstorms will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be slight to moderate.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern and Northern Luzon, and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of KAI-TAK (HELEN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon August 13, 2012
Location of Center: 16.5º N Lat 126.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 394 km (NE) away from Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 434 km (NE) away from Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 473 km (ESE) closer to Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 4: 512 km (NE) away from Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 513 km (ENE) closer to Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 548 km (ESE) closer to Ilagan City
Distance 7: 555 km (ESE) closer to Sta. Ana, Cagayan
Distance 8: 566 km (ESE) closer to Tuguegarao City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Extreme Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Northern Cagayan: Thursday [2AM-12PM PHT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 750 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

KAI-TAK (HELEN) is expected to move NW-ward during the next 24 to 48 hours...before turning WNW-ward through 72 hours w/ little change in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of KAI-TAK will be traversing the Calayan-Babuyan-Batanes Group of Islands on Wednesday noon...and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours...and KAI-TAK will become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY NOON: Strengthens into a TS as it moves closer to Extreme Northern Luzon...about 276 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela [12PM AUG 14: 17.1N 125.1E @ 75kph].
WEDNESDAY NOON: Still gaining strength as it traverses the Calayan-Babuyan-Batanes Group of Islands...about 102 km SSE of Basco, Batanes [12PM AUG 15: 19.6N 122.2E @ 100kph].
THURSDAY NOON: Becomes a Typhoon as it moves out of PAR...about 205 km SW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [12PM AUG 16: 21.5N 118.7E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the coastal areas of Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region & Northern Samar. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 750 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Kai-tak (Helen) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with some scattered showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON & MINDORO incl. CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS & METRO MANILA. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TD KAI-TAK (HELEN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Kai-tak's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 14W (HELEN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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