Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS TEMBIN [IGME]

for Wednesday, 29 August 2012 [8:47 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 20, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on TEMBIN (IGME).

TEMBIN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM TEMBIN (IGME) UPDATE NUMBER 028
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Tue 28 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm TEMBIN (IGME) moving northward across the East China Sea...has left the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) last night.

TEMBIN will still slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and affect the western portions of Northern Luzon especially La Union and Ilocos Provinces. Mostly cloudy and windy conditions w/ scattered to passing occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the abovementioned area.

Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula and Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of TEMBIN (IGME).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed August 29, 2012
Location of Center: 26.9º N Lat 123.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 320 km (ESE) closer to Wenzhou, China
Distance 2: 392 km (SE) closer to Ningbo, China
Distance 3: 291 km (NE) away from Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 524 km (SSE) closer to Shanghai, China
Distance 5: 778 km (SSW) closer to Jeju Island
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: East China Sea
NOAA 12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 100 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 480 km (260 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TEMBIN (IGME) is expected to continue moving NNE to NE-ward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TEMBIN will continue to move across the East China Sea today...passing close to Jeju Island early Thursday morning...and making landfall over South Korea on Thursday afternoon. By early Friday morning, TEMBIN will be moving into the Sea of Japan as it approaches Vladivostok, Russia.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. A decrease in its strength will continue during the next 2 to 3 days as TEMBIN moves across cooler seas.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles). TEMBIN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 480 kilometers (260 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Accelerating NNE towards South Korea...passing close to the northwest of Jeju Island [5AM AUG 30: 33.7N 125.8E @ 85kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens further as it exits the Korean Peninsula...moving across the Sea of Japan [5AM AUG 31: 41.2N 130.6E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (East China Sea). Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-140 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (East China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Taiwan and the coastal areas of Eastern China. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 100 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of Tembin (Igme) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Taiwan and Eastern China. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of the rest of Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Mostly cloudy skies with some isolated to scattered showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS TEMBIN (IGME)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Tembin's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS TEMBIN (IGME)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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