Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon TEMBIN [IGME]

for Thursday, 23 August 2012 [11:23 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 20, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on TEMBIN (IGME).

TEMBIN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON TEMBIN (IGME) UPDATE NUMBER 012
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 23 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon TEMBIN (IGME) gathering strength over the Bashi Channel as it moves slowly closer to Southeastern Taiwan. Landfall expected by tomorrow morning.

TEMBIN together with the incoming Typhoon BOLAVEN will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and affect Palawan, Visayas, Mindanao and Southern Luzon today until the weekend. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy and windy conditions w/ scattered to passing occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough.

Meanwhile, Typhoon BOLAVEN (JULIAN) has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...will not directly affect any part of the Philippines. Check out the latest details on this system at the TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH section of this page.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Southern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of TEMBIN (IGME).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu August 23, 2012
Location of Eye: 22.8º N Lat 122.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 269 km (NNE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 245 km (NNE) closer to Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 237 km (SW) away from Ishigaki Jima
Distance 4: 181 km (SE) closer to Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 5: 273 km (SSE) closer to Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 6: 257 km (E) closer to Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 7: 412 km (NNE) closer to Calayan Island
Distance 8: 482 km (NNE) away from Santa Ana, Cagayan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Southern Taiwan
CPA [ETA] to Southern Taiwan: Friday Morning [7AM PHT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TEMBIN (IGME) is expected to continue moving slowly Westward during the next 12 to 48 hours...and will turn SW to southward during the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TEMBIN will not directly affect any part of the Philippines, except for the Batanes Islands. This typhoon will be approaching the Southeast Coast of Taiwan tonight...and will make landfall over Southeastern Taiwan on Thursday morning at approx. 7AM and traverse Southern Taiwan. By Saturday and Sunday, TEMBIN will emerge over the Taiwan Strait...and starts interacting with the much larger typhoon (BOLAVEN) which is forecast to pass to the NE of TEMBIN on its way to Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 195 km/hr (105 knots) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength will be expected during the next 12 hours, prior to landfall. TEMBIN will weaken back to minimal typhoon strength after crossing Southern Taiwan.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 270 kilometers (145 nautical miles) from the center. TEMBIN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY EVENING: Moving into the Southwestern part of Taiwan...weakens...about 35 km North of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [6PM AUG 24: 22.9N 120.2E @ 205kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Emerges along the Taiwan Strait after crossing Southern Taiwan...weakens to Category 2...about 188 km WSW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [6PM AUG 25: 22.4N 118.5E @ 165kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Starts interacting with the larger Typhoon Bolaven...turns southward slowly while over the Taiwan Strait...about 229 km SW of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [6PM AUG 26: 21.7N 118.3E @ 150kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

RAGGED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Eastern Taiwan. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-118 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across rest of Taiwan, the tiny island group of Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Ishigaki and Yaeyama Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Tembin (Igme) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes-Ishigaki-Yaeyama Island Group and Eastern Taiwan. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern China and the rest of Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Meanwhile, Typhoon BOLAVEN (JULIAN) has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...moving WNW as it continues to intensify. Its center was located about 1324 km ESE of Basco, Batanes (20.2N 134.7E)...with maximum sustained winds of 185 kph with higher gusts and was moving WNW @ 11 kph towards Okinawa-Ryukyus Area. This system will not directly affect any part of the Philippines To view the latest information on this storm kindly click and visit this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with some isolated to scattered showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, VISAYAS, SOUTHERN LUZON and WESTERN MINDANAO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY TEMBIN (IGME)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Tembin's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY TEMBIN (IGME)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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