Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KAI-TAK [HELEN]

for Wednesday, 15 August 2012 [9:42 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 13, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on KAI-TAK (HELEN).

KAI-TAK MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (HELEN) UPDATE NUMBER 010
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 15 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (HELEN) moving rapidly away from Ilocos Norte...regains 100-km/hr winds. Stormy weather continues to prevail across Northern Luzon, with improving conditions by tomorrow. This system now endangers Hong Kong and Macau Area.

Meanwhile, KAI-TAK will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across the Western Sections of Luzon & Visayas incl. Metro Manila, Northern Palawan, Mindoro, Southern Luzon today until Thursday. Cloudy and windy conditions w/ scattered to passing occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be rough and dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Guangdong Province should closely monitor the progress of KAI-TAK (HELEN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed August 15, 2012
Location of Center: 19.2º N Lat 119.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 143 km (WNW) away from Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 153 km (NW) away from Laoag City
Distance 3: 197 km (NNW) away from Vigan City
Distance 4: 200 km (W) away from Calayan Island
Distance 5: 230 km (WNW) away from Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 284 km (WNW) away from Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 7: 284 km (SW) away from Basco, Batanes
Distance 8: 385 km (SSW) away from Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 9: 329 km (NNW) away from Baguio City
Distance 10: 546 km (NNW) away from Metro Manila
Distance 11: 555 km (SE) closer to Shantou, China
Distance 12: 653 km (SE) closer to Hong Kong
Distance 13: 707 km (SE) closer to Macau
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Southern China
CPA [ETA] to Hong Kong: Thursday Night [9PM PHT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

KAI-TAK (HELEN) is expected to continue moving NW-ward throughout the forecast period, with some decrease in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of KAI-TAK will continue to move quickly across the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea tonight and will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early Thursday. By Thursday evening, KAI-TAK is forecast to make landfall near Hong Kong, and will move inland across Guangdong Province through Friday and Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. Continued intensification will be expected during the next 12 to 24 hours...and KAI-TAK could become a Typhoon later tonight or Thursday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 150 kilometers (80 nautical miles) from the center. KAI-TAK is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers (420 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY EVENING: Becomes a Typhoon bears down the coast of Guangdong Province in Southern China...about 108 km ESE of Hong Kong Harbour [6PM AUG 16: 22.0N 115.2E @ 140kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Weakens to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it starts dissipating over Southern China...about 98 km NW of Hong Kong, China [6PM AUG 17: 24.2N 110.7E @ 75kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Just a Tropical Depression (TD)...as it continues to dissipate over Southern China...about 457 km NNE of Hanoi, Vietnam [6PM AUG 18: 24.9N 107.2E @ 45kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (West Philippine Sea)...possible "Eye" forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-130 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Central & Northern Luzon. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of Kai-tak (Helen) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northwestern & Western Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon, Taiwan & Southern China (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with some scattered to occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, WESTERN LUZON & MINDORO incl. CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, NORTHERN PALAWAN, BICOL REGION, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES & METRO MANILA. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TS KAI-TAK (HELEN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Kai-tak's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS KAI-TAK (HELEN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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