Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KAI-TAK [HELEN]

for Tuesday, 14 August 2012 [9:19 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 13, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on KAI-TAK (HELEN).

KAI-TAK MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (HELEN) UPDATE NUMBER 006
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 14 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (HELEN) continues to move westward closer to Northern Luzon particularly Cagayan. Its rainbands continues to spread across most parts of Luzon.

Meanwhile, KAI-TAK will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across the Western Sections of Luzon & Visayas incl. Metro Manila today until Thursday. Mostly cloudy conditions w/ scattered to passing occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern and Northern Luzon, and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of KAI-TAK (HELEN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue August 14, 2012
Location of Center: 17.7º N Lat 124.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 173 km (ENE) closer to Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 2: 210 km (ESE) closer to Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 3: 240 km (ENE) closer to Ilagan City
Distance 4: 244 km (E) closer to Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 255 km (ESE) closer to Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 260 km (ENE) closer to Cauayan City
Distance 7: 318 km (SE) closer to Calayan Island
Distance 8: 376 km (SE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 9: 364 km (ESE) closer to Laoag City
Distance 10: 465 km (NE) away from Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Cagayan-Calayan Area
CPA [ETA] to Northern Cagayan: Wednesday [2AM-2PM PHT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 650 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

KAI-TAK (HELEN) is expected to move WNW to NW-ward during the next 24 to 48 hours...before turning generally WNW-ward through 72 hours. Some fluctuation in its forward speed is likely throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of KAI-TAK will pass very close to Santa Ana, Cagayan Wednesday morning and Calayan Island before Wednesday noon. It will then move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) just before midnight on Thursday. By Thursday evening, KAI-TAK is forecast to make landfall over Southern China just southwest of Shantou City.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast during the next 2 days...and KAI-TAK could become a Typhoon on Wednesday evening or Thursday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles) from the center. KAI-TAK is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers (420 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Near Typhoon strength as it starts to move away from the Balintang Channel...about 193 km WSW of Basco, Batanes [6PM AUG 15: 20.1N 120.1E @ 100kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: Becomes a Typhoon as it bears down the coast of Southern China...about 89 km South of Shantou City, China [6PM AUG 16: 22.6N 116.7E @ 130kph].
FRIDAY NOON: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) after making landfall...moving inland across Western Guangdong in Southern China...about 213 km NNW of Hong Kong [6PM AUG 17: 24.0N 113.5E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...expect to reach Cagayan & Isabela later tonight or Wednesday morning. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-100 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Cagayan, Isabela and Aurora. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the whole of Luzon including Bicol Region. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 650 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Kai-tak (Helen) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northeastern Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with some scattered to occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, WESTERN LUZON & MINDORO incl. CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS & METRO MANILA. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TS KAI-TAK (HELEN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Kai-tak's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS KAI-TAK (HELEN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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