Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon TEMBIN [IGME]

for Sunday, 26 August 2012 [1:55 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 20, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on TEMBIN (IGME).

TEMBIN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON TEMBIN (IGME) UPDATE NUMBER 020
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sun 26 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon TEMBIN (IGME) has started to make a u-turn as it moves southwestward slowly...re-strengthens back to Category 2.

TEMBIN together with Typhoon BOLAVEN will continue to slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and affect Western Luzon incl. Metro Manila through the weekend. Sunny to mostly cloudy and windy conditions w/ scattered to passing occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Southern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of TEMBIN (IGME).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun August 26, 2012
Location of Eye: 21.0� N Lat 116.9� E Lon
Distance 1: 268 km (S) away from Shantou, China
Distance 2: 408 km (SSW) away from Xiamen, China
Distance 3: 314 km (ESE) away from Hong Kong
Distance 4: 398 km (WSW) closer to Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 5: 509 km (WNW) closer to Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 6: 523 km (WNW) closer to Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Present Movement: SE @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Southern Taiwan
CPA [ETA] to Southern Taiwan: Tuesday Morning [8AM PHT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 510 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 37 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TEMBIN (IGME) is expected to move slowly ESE to Eastward during the next 12 to 24 hours...turning ENE, NE to NNE during the next 36 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TEMBIN will re-enter PAR on late Monday evening and make landfall over Southern Taiwan on Tuesday morning. It will traverse Central and Eastern Taiwan throughout Tuesday and will move out of Taiwan through the northern coastline by early Wednesday morning. The u-turn track of TEMBIN is mainly due to the pull and interaction with Typhoon BOLAVEN which will dictate Tembin's motion.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 160 km/hr (85 knots) with higher gusts. Continued increase in strength will be expected during the next 24 hours...and will weaken upon making landfall over Southern Taiwan on Tuesday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers (140 nautical miles). TEMBIN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY MORNING: Completes its u-turn...starts moving east to ENE towards Southern Taiwan...about 385 km West of Basco, Batanes [11AM AUG 27: 20.6N 118.4E @ 185kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Makes landfall over Southern Taiwan...near Kaohsiung District...about 150 km SSW of Hualien City, Taiwan [11AM AUG 28: 22.8N 120.9E @ 130kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it moves out of Northern Taiwan towards the East China Sea...about 191 km NNE of Taipei, Taiwan [11AM AUG 29: 26.6N 122.3E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

RAGGED EYE - over water (West Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across coastal areas of Ilocos Provinces, Southwestern Taiwan, Southern and Southeastern China. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 510 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Tembin (Igme) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southeastern China, Southern & Western Taiwan. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon, Southeastern China and the rest of Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with some isolated to scattered showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY TEMBIN (IGME)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Tembin's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY TEMBIN (IGME)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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