Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KAI-TAK [HELEN]

for Wednesday, 15 August 2012 [9:42 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 13, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on KAI-TAK (HELEN).

KAI-TAK MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON KAI-TAK (HELEN) UPDATE NUMBER 011
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thu 16 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

KAI-TAK (HELEN) strengthens into a Category 1 Typhoon as it moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...now a threat to Western Guangdong particularly Leizhou Peninsula.

Meanwhile, KAI-TAK will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across the Western Luzon incl. Metro Manila, Palawan, and Mindoro today. Cloudy and windy conditions w/ scattered to passing occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be rough and dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Guangdong Province should closely monitor the progress of KAI-TAK (HELEN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu August 16, 2012
Location of Eye: 19.0º N Lat 117.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 341 km (WNW) away from Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 328 km (WNW) away from Laoag City
Distance 3: 334 km (NW) away from Vigan City
Distance 4: 411 km (W) away from Calayan Island
Distance 5: 391 km (NW) away from Dagupan City
Distance 6: 430 km (NW) away from Baguio City
Distance 7: 480 km (WSW) away from Basco, Batanes
Distance 8: 498 km (SSE) away from Shantou, China
Distance 9: 615 km (NNW) away from Metro Manila
Distance 10: 502 km (SE) closer to Hong Kong
Distance 11: 548 km (SE) closer to Macau
Distance 12: 746 km (E) closer to Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 13: 784 km (ESE) closer to Zhanjiang, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Southern China
CPA [ETA] to Leizhou Peninsula: Friday Afternoon [2PM PHT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

KAI-TAK (HELEN) is expected to move generally WNW-ward throughout the forecast period, with some fluctations in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of KAI-TAK will continue to move across the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea today until Friday morning and will make landfall just east of the Leizhou Peninsula, Western Guangdong on Friday afternoon. This system will start to move inland across Southwestern China Friday evening through Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. Continued intensification will be expected during the next 12 to 24 hours...and KAI-TAK could reach peak winds of 140 kmh/hr by Friday just before it makes landfall.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles) from the center. KAI-TAK is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers (420 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Reaches peak intensity as it bears down the coast of Southern China, just east of Leizhou Peninsula...about 195 km ESE of Zhanjiang City [6AM AUG 17: 20.8N 112.3E @ 140kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it starts dissipating over Southern China...about 80 km North of the Chinese-North Korean Border [6AM AUG 18: 22.3N 108.0E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Dissipates over Northern Vietnam...just an area of Low Pressure...about 227 km NNW of Hanoi, Vietnam [6AM AUG 19: 22.9N 105.0E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (South China Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea & South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas...but will reach the coastal areas of Southern China on Friday morning. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-118 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Southern China including the eastern coast of Hainan Island. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (high) along areas near the center of Kai-tak (Helen) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern China. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Luzon, Taiwan & Vietnam (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with some scattered to occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, WESTERN LUZON & MINDORO incl. CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, and SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES including METRO MANILA. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY KAI-TAK (HELEN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Kai-tak's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on Typhoon KAI-TAK (HELEN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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