Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon HAIKUI [12W]

for Tuesday, 07 August 2012 [6:41 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday August 05, 2012):

(1) Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on HAIKUI (12W) located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR); (2) The Track No. 2 (Old GIF StormTrack) will only be issued for Tropical Cyclones within the PAR.

HAIKUI MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 155 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON HAIKUI (12W) UPDATE NUMBER 011
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Tue 07 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon HAIKUI (12W) has maintained its snail-paced track towards Zhejiang Province in Southeastern China...forecast to make landfall just south of Ningbo City Wednesday afternoon.

This typhoon, although located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across the country particularly the western sections of Luzon & Visayas incl. Metro Manila. Breezy to windy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasional to continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Haikui (12W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue August 07, 2012
Location of Eye: 27.8� N Lat 123.2� E Lon
Distance 1: 247 km (E) closer to Wenzhou, China
Distance 2: 286 km (SE) closer to Ningbo, China
Distance 3: 416 km (SSE) closer to Shanghai, China
Distance 4: 350 km (NNE) away from Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 380 km (NNW) away from Ishigaki Jima
Distance 6: 477 km (WNW) away from Okinawa, Japan
Distance 7: 811 km (NNE) away from Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Zhejiang Province
Landfall [ETA] to Zhejiang Province: Wednesday [11AM-5PM HKT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

HAIKUI (12W) is expected to move WNW to NW-ward during the next 24 to 48 hours...recurving sharply to the NE after 48 hours. Its general motion will remain slow during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of HAIKUI will continue to move across the East China Sea today until Wednesday morning...and will make landfall over Zhejiang Province in Southeastern China, just south of the city of Ningbo by Wednesday afternoon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours before HAIKUI makes landfall due to interaction with the Chinese Coast. Rapid dissipation of the typhoon will be expected as HAIKUI moves over land.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles) from the center. HAIKUI is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) as the cyclone makes landfall over Zhejiang Province...about 68 km SW of Ningbo City, China [5PM AUG 08: 29.4N 121.1E @ 95kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to recurve to the NE...just an area of low pressure as it continues to dissipate over Zhejiang Province...about 150 km WSW of Shanghai, China [5PM AUG 09: 30.6N 120.0E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (East China Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Near the Coast of Zhejiang Province)...not yet affecting any land areas...but will reach and affect the shoreline of Zhejiang Province later tonight or early Wednesday. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Zhejiang Province. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan and the rest of Eastern and Southeastern China. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Haikui (12W) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern & SE China, Northern Taiwan, Okinawa, Amami and the Rest of the Ryukyu Islands. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Japan, Extreme Northern Luzon, and South Korea. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm 13W (Unnamed) continues to move NW across the far Western Pacific Ocean, with no threat to land. Its center was located about 887 km NE of Marcus Island (30.0N 160.9E)...with maximum sustained winds of 85 kph and was moving NW @ 17 kph. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click and visit this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional to continuous showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: LUZON & VISAYAS...more intense along METRO MANILA, PANGASINAN, ZAMBALES, CENTRAL LUZON, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO & PALAWAN. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY HAIKUI (12W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1212.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Haikui's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY HAIKUI (12W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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