Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SAOLA [GENER]

for Wednesday, 01 August 2012 [8:06 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday July 28 2012):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly web, email, SMS & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on SAOLA (GENER).

SAOLA MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON SAOLA (GENER) UPDATE NUMBER 017
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 01 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamical Models/Sat+RadarFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon SAOLA (GENER) continues to intensify as it jogs temporarily west-northwest...endangers Taiwan particularly Taipei. Eyewall approaching Taiwan's northeastern coast as Typhoon Conditions set to affect the area tonight. Southwestern outer rainbands continues to affect Extreme Northern Luzon.

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces, rest of Luzon, Bicol Region, Mindoro, Visayas & Palawan today. Breezy to windy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasionally passing rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas, especially along the western coast. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be rough and dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Saola (Gener).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed August 01 2012
Location of Eye: 23.8� N Lat 122.9� E Lon
Distance 1: 134 km ESE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 2: 187 km SE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 3: 153 km WSW of Ishigaki Jima
Distance 4: 352 km NNE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 378 km NNE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 444 km SE of Fuzhou, China
Distance 7: 516 km SSE of Wenzhou, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: WNW-NW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Northern Taiwan-SE China
CPA [ETA] to Northeastern Taiwan: Thursday [6AM-5PM PhT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 1,295 km (700 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

SAOLA (GENER) is expected to move NW for the next 12 hours before resuming its NNW track by 24 hours...and will bend back to the NW to WNW-ward within 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of SAOLA will pass along the shores of Northeastern Taiwan Thursday morning and will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Thursday afternoon after passing very close to Taipei. On Friday morning, SAOLA will make landfall over Zhejiang Province...or just to the south of Wenzhou City, and will then start to move over land across China through Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 165 km/hr (90 knots) with higher gusts. More strengthening is forecast during the next 1 to 2 days, and SAOLA is expected to become a Category 3 Typhoon by Thursday afternoon.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers (140 nautical miles). SAOLA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,295 kilometers (700 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY EVENING: Attains Category 3 status after passing very close to Taipei, Taiwan...about 123 km North of the city [6PM AUG 02: 26.1N 121.7E @ 185kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) after making landfall over Zhejiang Province...about 224 km NNW of Wenzhou City, China [6PM AUG 03: 28.8N 118.6E @ 100kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it moves deeper into mainland China...about 592 km WNW of Wenzhou City, China [6PM AUG 04: 30.1N 115.1E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

RAGGED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...but will reach and affect the northeast shoreline of Taiwan on Thursday morning. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Ishigaki Island Group, Eastern and Northern Taiwan. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Extreme Northern Luzon, Southeastern China and the Rest of Taiwan including Okinawa Group of Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (very high) along areas near the center of Saola (Gener). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon, Eastern & Northern Taiwan, & Ishigaki Island Group. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern & Western Philippines and Southeastern China. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Typhoon DAMREY (11W) upgraded from Tropical Storm as it rapidly moves away from the coast of Southern Kyushu. Its center was located about 109 km SW of Kagoshima, Japan (30.9N 129.8E)...with maximum sustained winds of 120 kph and was moving WNW @ 35 kph towards Eastern China. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, REST OF LUZON, MINDORO, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS, & WESTERN MINDANAO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY SAOLA (GENER)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1012.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Saola's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SAOLA (GENER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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