Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon BOLAVEN [JULIAN]

for Sunday, 26 August 2012 [1:55 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday August 26, 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on BOLAVEN (JULIAN).

TEMBIN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON BOLAVEN (JULIAN) UPDATE NUMBER 001
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sun 26 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

The large and powerful Typhoon BOLAVEN (JULIAN) which formed and moved across the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean for the past week, is now approaching the island of Okinawa...its eye expected to pass over the island before or after sunset. Typhoon Conditions now starting to be felt over the area.

Residents and visitors along Okinawa, Ryukyus and the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of BOLAVEN (JULIAN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun August 26, 2012
Location of Eye: 25.6º N Lat 129.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 164 km (SE) closer to Okinawa City
Distance 2: 157 km (SE) closer to Kadena Airbase, Okinawa
Distance 3: 155 km (SE) closer to Naha Airport, Okinawa
Distance 4: 302 km (S) closer to Amami Island
Distance 5: 500 km (ENE) away from Ishigaki Jima
Distance 6: 921 km (NE) away from Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph (115 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph (140 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Okinawa
CPA [ETA] to Okinawa: Sunday Afternoon [5PM PHT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 230 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 1295 km (700 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 52 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Latest StormTracks (for Public): Wunderground.com

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

BOLAVEN (JULIAN) is expected to continue moving NW to NNW-ward during the next 24 to 36 hours...turning and recurving to the North to NNE during the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of BOLAVEN will pass over or very close to Okinawa Island just after sundown today and move across the East China and the Yellow Sea starting early Monday thru Tuesday - passing close to the west of Jeju Island Monday evening. By Tuesday noontime, Bolaven will make landfall over North Korea and cross the communist nation Tuesday evening...and will be off Northeastern China on Wednesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 215 km/hr (115 knots) with higher gusts. Continue decrease in strength will be expected throughout the forecast period...and will weaken upon making landfall over North Korea on Tuesday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 425 kilometers (230 nautical miles). BOLAVEN is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1295 kilometers (700 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY MORNING: Continues to weaken moving into the Yellow Sea...approaching Jeju Island [11AM AUG 27: 29.8N 126.2E @ 195kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Approaching the southern coast of North Korea...weakens to Category 2 [11AM AUG 28: 37.1N 125.2E @ 160kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm...starts transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone...moving inland across Northeastern China [11AM AUG 29: 26.6N 122.3E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

ROUND EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...but will reach and affect Okinawa before and after Sunset.. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Okinawa Islands. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Ryukyu and Amami Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 230 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Bolaven (Julian) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Okinawa Islands. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Ryukyus and Amami Islands (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY BOLAVEN (JULIAN)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1612.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Bolaven's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY BOLAVEN (JULIAN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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