Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS SAOLA [GENER]

for Thursday, 02 August 2012 [9:24 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday July 28 2012):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on SAOLA (GENER).

SAOLA MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (GENER) UPDATE NUMBER 020
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 02 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamical Models/Sat+RadarFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

SAOLA (GENER) has weakened rapidly into a Tropical Storm after passing very close to Taipei, Taiwan...now emerges off the northwestern coast of Taiwan, just outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Tropical Storm Conditions affecting Northern Taiwan.

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Western Luzon, Mindoro, and Western Visayas today. Breezy to windy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasionally passing rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas, especially along the western coast. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be rough and dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Saola (Gener).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu August 02 2012
Location of Center: 25.2� N Lat 121.3� E Lon
Distance 1: 38 km WNW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 2: 137 km NNW of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 3: 319 km SSE of Wenzhou, China
Distance 4: 306 km NNE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 5: 527 km NNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Southeastern China
CPA [ETA] to Southeastern China: Friday [2AM-2PM PhT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 1,110 km (600 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

SAOLA (GENER) is expected to move NNW to NW for the next 12 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, the core of SAOLA will track across Taiwan Strait tonight and will make its final landfall over Southeastern China Friday morning...or just to the northeast of Fuzhou City. It will then start to move over land across inner mainland China through early Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. A slight strengthening is likely within the next 12 hours as SAOLA moves across the Taiwan Strait. The system will be downgraded into a Depression on Friday as it moves inland across Southeastern China.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center. SAOLA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,110 kilometers (600 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY EVENING: Becoming a Tropical Depression as it moves inland well into Southeastern China...about 227 km West of Wenzhou City [6PM AUG 03: 28.2N 118.4E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Northern Taiwan & Taiwan Strait...and will move into Southeastern China later tonight. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Taiwan, Batanes Island Group, Southeastern China and Ishigaki Island Group. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (very high) along areas near the center of Saola (Gener) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Taiwan, Southeastern China & Ishigaki Island Group. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern & Western Philippines, Okinawa Islands and Southern China (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Typhoon DAMREY (11W) gained more strength as it is about to make landfall over Eastern China tonight. Its center was located about 334 km NNW of Shanghai, China (34.2N 121.2E)...with maximum sustained winds of 140 kph and was moving WNW @ 38 kph towards Eastern China. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Sunny to cloudy skies with isolated occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, WESTERN LUZON, MINDORO, BICOL REGION, & WESTERN VISAYAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TS SAOLA (GENER)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1012.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1.5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Saola's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SAOLA (GENER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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