Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon BOLAVEN [JULIAN]

for Monday, 27 August 2012 [2:17 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 27, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, and email updates (except 12 Midnight) on BOLAVEN (JULIAN).

BOLAVEN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON BOLAVEN (JULIAN) UPDATE NUMBER 004
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Mon 27 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon BOLAVEN (JULIAN) weakens to Category 2 while cruising across the East China Sea in the direction of the Korean Peninsula.

Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of BOLAVEN (JULIAN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon August 27, 2012
Location of Eye: 29.3º N Lat 126.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 344 km (NW) away from Okinawa City
Distance 2: 351 km (NW) away from Kadena Airbase, Okinawa
Distance 3: 371 km (NNE) away from Naha Airport, Okinawa
Distance 4: 322 km (WNW) away from Amami Island
Distance 5: 485 km (WSW) closer to Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 6: 445 km (S) closer to Jeju Island
Distance 7: 696 km (SSW) closer to Busan, S.Korea
Distance 8: 926 km (SSW) closer to Seoul, S.Korea
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph (95 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: South Korea
CPA [ETA] to Jeju Island: Tuesday Morning [3-4AM JST]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 230 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 980 km (530 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 46 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Latest StormTracks (for Public): Wunderground.com

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

BOLAVEN (JULIAN) is expected to continue moving NNW to Northward during the next 24 to 36 hours...turning and recurving to the NNE to NE during the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of BOLAVEN will move across the East China and into the Yellow Sea today thru Tuesday afternoon - passing close to the west of Jeju Island early Tuesday morning. By early Tuesday evening, Bolaven will make landfall over North Korea, passing very close to Pyongyang and cross the communist nation thru Wednesday early morning...and will be off Siberia, Russia by Thursday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 175 km/hr (95 knots) with higher gusts. A continued decrease in its strength will be expected throughout the forecast period...and BOLAVEN will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS) after making landfall over North Korea on Tuesday evening.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 400 kilometers (215 nautical miles). BOLAVEN is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 985 kilometers (530 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens to Category 1 while accelerating rapidly Northward into the Yellow Sea...approaching the southern coast of North Korea [11AM AUG 28: 36.0N 125.3E @ 150kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Just a Tropical Storm...moving inland across NE China...about 336 km WNW of Vladivostok, Eastern Russia [11AM AUG 29: 43.7N 127.8E @ 85kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Just a Tropical Depression...moving rapidly inland across Eastern Russia...894 km NNE of Vladivostok, Russia [11AM AUG 30: 51.0N 134.1E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (East China Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (East China Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (East China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Jeju Island, Okinawa-Ryukyu-Amami Islands, Kyushu (Japan), and South Korea. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 230 mm (high) along areas near the center of Bolaven (Julian) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Jeju Island and the Korean Peninsula. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Kyushu, Ryukyus and Amami Islands (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY BOLAVEN (JULIAN)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1612.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Bolaven's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY BOLAVEN (JULIAN)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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