Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SAOLA [GENER]

for Tuesday, 31 July 2012 [8:20 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday July 28 2012):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly web, email, SMS & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on SAOLA (GENER).

SAOLA MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON SAOLA (GENER) UPDATE NUMBER 014
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 31 July 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamical Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon SAOLA (GENER) has started moving very slowly NNW away from the Batanes Islands towards the Yaeyama Islands. Rainbands continues to spread and affect Northern Luzon and Taiwan.

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Rest of Luzon, Bicol Region, Mindoro, and Western Visayas including Palawan today. Breezy to windy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasionally passing rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas, especially along the western coast. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be rough and dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Saola (Gener).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue July 31 2012
Location of Eye: 21.6� N Lat 124.0� E Lon
Distance 1: 240 km NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 245 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 393 km NNE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 365 km NE of Calayan Island
Distance 5: 429 km NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 506 km NNE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 7: 323 km South of Ishigaki Jima
Distance 8: 519 km NNE of Laoag City
Distance 9: 363 km SE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 10: 450 km SSE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Northern Taiwan-SE China
CPA [ETA] to Yaeyama Islands: Thursday [6AM-6PM PhT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 600 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,480 km (800 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

SAOLA (GENER) is expected to move NNW for the next 24 to 48 hours with little increase in its forward speed...will slightly bend NW-ward between 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of SAOLA will remain over the open sea (North Philippine Sea)...passing over Yaeyama Islands on Thursday noon and will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late Thursday afternoon. On Friday evening, SAOLA will start to make landfall over Southeastern China very near Wenzhou City.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. More strengthening is forecast during the next 1 to 2 days, and SAOLA is expected to become a Category 2 Typhoon by Wednesday evening or early Thursday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles). SAOLA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,480 kilometers (800 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Gaining more strength as it moves slowly NNW away from the Batanes Islands, and approaching Yaeyama Islands...about 206 km SSW of Ishigaki Jima [6PM AUG 01: 22.8N 123.7E @ 150kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: Nears Category 3 strength as it moves out of the PAR...about 173 km East of Taipei, Taiwan [6PM AUG 02: 25.2N 123.3E @ 175kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Just along the shores of Southeastern China...prepares to make landfall...about 24 km SSE of Wenzhou City, China [6PM AUG 03: 27.8N 120.8E @ 175kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

RAGGED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Batanes Group od Islands. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Northern Luzon, Southeastern China and Taiwan including Yaeyama-Ishigaki Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 600 mm (very high) along areas near the center of Saola (Gener). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon and Eastern Taiwan. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern Philippines and Southeastern China. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Storm (TS) DAMREY (11W) situated over the far Western Pacific Ocean continues to move fast...still threatens Southern Japan. Its center was located about 424 km WNW of Chichi Jima or 794 km ESE of Kagoshima, Japan (28.8N 138.2E)...with maximum sustained winds of 100 kph and is forecast to move WNW @ 33 kph towards Southern Japan. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, REST OF LUZON, MINDORO, BICOL REGION, and WESTERN VISAYAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY SAOLA (GENER)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1012.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Saola's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS SAOLA (GENER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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