Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon TEMBIN [IGME]

for Thursday, 23 August 2012 [9:14 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 20, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on TEMBIN (IGME).

TEMBIN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON TEMBIN (IGME) UPDATE NUMBER 010
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thu 23 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon TEMBIN (IGME) moving slowly closer to Eastern Taiwan...may re-intensify soon.

Meanwhile, Typhoon BOLAVEN (16W) gains Category 2 strength with winds of 165 km/hr...will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) today. Check out the latest details on this system at the TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH section of this page.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan and Southern China should closely monitor the progress of TEMBIN (IGME).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu August 23, 2012
Location of Eye: 22.7º N Lat 123.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 295 km (NNE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 281 km (NE) closer to Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 209 km (SSW) closer to Ishigaki Jima
Distance 4: 250 km (SE) closer to Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 5: 327 km (SE) closer to Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 6: 338 km (E) closer to Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 7: 436 km (NNE) away from Calayan Island
Distance 8: 489 km (NNE) away from Santa Ana, Cagayan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Taiwan
CPA [ETA] to Southern Taiwan: Friday Morning [7AM PHT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TEMBIN (IGME) is expected to start moving slowly Westward during the next 12 to 48 hours...and will turn WSW-ward during the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TEMBIN will not directly affect any part of the Philippines, except for the Batanes Islands as it will remain over the open sea. This typhoon will be approaching the East Coast of Taiwan today...and will make landfall over Southeastern Taiwan on Thursday morning at approx. 7AM and traverse Southern Taiwan. By Saturday and Sunday, TEMBIN will emerge over the Taiwan Strait...and starts interacting with the much larger typhoon (BOLAVEN).

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. Little change in strength will be expected during the next 24 hours, prior to making landfall. TEMBIN will remain a minimal typhoon after crossing Southern Taiwan.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 240 kilometers (130 nautical miles) from the center. TEMBIN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Bears down the coast of Southeastern Taiwan...about 112 km South of Hualien, Taiwan [6AM AUG 24: 23.0N 121.7E @ 160kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Emerges along the Taiwan Strait after crossing Southern Taiwan...about 98 km ENE of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [6AM AUG 25: 22.9N 119.4E @ 130kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Slows down over Taiwan Strait...starts interacting with the larger typhoon (Bolaven) heading towards Okinawa...about 174 km West of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [6AM AUG 26: 22.6N 118.6E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-118 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Eastern Taiwan, the tiny island group of Batanes, Ishigaki and Yaeyama Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Tembin (Igme) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes-Ishigaki-Yaeyama Island Group and Eastern Taiwan. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern China and the rest of Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Meanwhile, Typhoon BOLAVEN (18W) approaching the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...will enter later today and will be named locally as JULIAN. Its center was located about 1468 km ESE of Basco, Batanes (19.4N 136.0E)...with maximum sustained winds of 165 kph with higher gusts and was moving West @ 11 kph towards Taiwan-Okinawa Area. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click and visit this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with some isolated to scattered showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, VISAYAS and WESTERN MINDANAO. Calm & light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY TEMBIN (IGME)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Tembin's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY TEMBIN (IGME)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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