Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS TEMBIN [IGME]

for Tuesday, 28 August 2012 [3:54 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 20, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on TEMBIN (IGME).

TEMBIN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM TEMBIN (IGME) UPDATE NUMBER 026
12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Tue 28 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

TEMBIN (IGME) has weakened into a Tropical Storm as it rapidly accelerated northeastward across the coast of Eastern Taiwan...will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight.

TEMBIN will slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and affect the western portions of Northern Luzon especially La Union and Ilocos Provinces. Mostly cloudy and windy conditions w/ scattered to passing occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the abovementioned area.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan and Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of TEMBIN (IGME).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Tue August 28, 2012
Location of Center: 23.6º N Lat 122.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 111 km (ESE) closer to Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 2: 186 km (SSE) closer to Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 199 km (WSW) closer to Ishigaki Jima
Distance 4: 260 km (ENE) away from Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 5: 322 km (NNE) away from Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 6: 350 km (NNE) away from Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Yaeyama-Ishigaki Islands
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 230 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 29 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TEMBIN (IGME) is expected to move NE to NNE during the next 12 to 24 hours...turning North throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TEMBIN will pass along the Yaeyama and Ishigaki Islands this afternoon and will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight. By Wednesday morning, TEMBIN will be moving across the East China Sea...and will pass just to the east of Shanghai, China on Thursday morning. It will be moving into the Yellow Sea on Friday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. A decrease in its strength will continue during the next 2 to 3 days.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles). TEMBIN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY NOON: Continues to weaken...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 447 km SE of Shanghai, China [12PM AUG 29: 28.0N 124.2E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY NOON: Re-intensifies slightly as it moves across the East China Sea, just near the coast of Eastern China...about 283 km NE of Shanghai, China [12PM AUG 30: 32.6N 123.9E @ 100kph].
FRIDAY NOON: Moving into the Yellow Sea...about 187 km SW of Pyongyang, >North Korea [12PM AUG 31: 37.8N 124.3E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Near the coast of SE Taiwan). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting the coastal areas of Southeastern Taiwan. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Eastern and Southeastern Taiwan. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Rest of Taiwan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands, and the Ishigaki-Yaeyama Island Chain. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 230 mm (high) along areas near the center of Tembin (Igme) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Taiwan, Ishigaki and Yaeyama Islands. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon and the rest of Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Mostly cloudy skies with some isolated to scattered showers, rains or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY TEMBIN (IGME)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Tembin's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY TEMBIN (IGME)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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