Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon TEMBIN [IGME]

for Wednesday, 22 August 2012 [9:32 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday August 20, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on TEMBIN (IGME).

TEMBIN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON TEMBIN (IGME) UPDATE NUMBER 008
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 22 August 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon TEMBIN (IGME) weakens as it starts turning Westward...expected to make landfall over Eastern Taiwan on Thursday afternoon.

Meanwhile, the other cyclone - BOLAVEN (16W) has strengthened into a Typhoon...will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday. Check out the latest details on this system at the TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH section of this page.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan and Southern China should closely monitor the progress of TEMBIN (IGME).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed August 22, 2012
Location of Eye: 22.2º N Lat 124.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 337 km (NE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 329 km (ENE) closer to Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 481 km (NNE) away from Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 456 km (NE) away from Calayan Island
Distance 5: 519 km (NE) away from Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 366 km (SE) closer to Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 7: 436 km (SE) closer to Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 8: 444 km (ESE) closer to Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 9: 259 km (SSE) closer to Ishigaki Jima
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Taiwan
CPA [ETA] to Eastern Taiwan: Thursday Afternoon [3PM PHT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF (for Philippines only)

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TEMBIN (IGME) is expected to start moving slowly WNW during the next 12 to 36 hours...and will turn sharply Westward during the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TEMBIN will not directly affect any part of the Philippines, except for the Batanes Islands as it will remain over the open sea. This typhoon will be approaching the East Coast of Taiwan Thursday morning...and will make landfall just south of Hualien City on Thursday afternoon at approx. 3PM and traverse Taiwan. By Friday morning, TEMBIN will emerge over the Taiwan Strait...and will make its final landfall over Western Guangdong.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 185 km/hr (100 knots) with higher gusts. Little change in strength will be expected during the next 24 hours, prior to making landfall. TEMBIN will be downgraded to a Tropical Storm after crossing Taiwan or Southern China.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles) from the center. TEMBIN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 520 kilometers (280 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Nearing Super Typhoon status as it turns WNW to Westward...about 318 km NE of Basco, Batanes [6AM AUG 23: 23.4N 122.8E @ 175kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Starts to lose strength after briefly reaching Super Typhoon strength...bears down the coast of Eastern Taiwan...about 93 km SE of Hualien City, Taiwan [6AM AUG 24: 23.9N 120.1E @ 140kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Moving across the Taiwan Strait after traversing Taiwan...weakens slightly...approaching Eastern Guangdong in Southern China...about 120 km SE of Xiamen City, China [6PM AUG 25: 24.0N 117.5E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-118 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the tiny island group of Batanes, Ishigaki and Yaeyama Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Tembin (Igme) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes-Ishigaki-Yaeyama Island Group and Eastern Taiwan. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern China and the rest of Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Meanwhile, BOLAVEN (18W) strengthens into a Typhoon as it moves towards the WNW...will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday. Its center was located about 1762 km ESE of Basco, Batanes (19.2N 138.8E)...with maximum sustained winds of 130 kph with higher gusts and was moving WNW @ 11 kph towards Taiwan-Okinawa Area. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click and visit this link.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY TEMBIN (IGME)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Tembin's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY TEMBIN (IGME)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__________________________________________________________________________________________

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation