Sunday, July 31, 2016

Tropical Storm NIDA (CARINA) Update Number 009


Tropical Storm NIDA (CARINA) Update Number 009

Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Sunday 31 July 2016
Next Update: Monday Early Morning, 01 August 2016


Current Status

Tropical Storm NIDA (CARINA) has already traversed Northern Cagayan between 3-4pm, and is now at near-Typhoon strength while moving along the shores of Aparri. Its rainbands will continue to bring moderate, heavy to extreme rainfall with moderate to strong winds across most parts of Northern Luzon tonight through Monday morning (Aug 01).

A WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Station (AWS) located in Brgy. Baua, Gonzaga, Cagayan has recorded wind gusts of 96 km/hr blowing from the North-Northeast at 11:20am today. Meanwhile, another AWS at Laoag International Airport (CebuPacific Air) has recorded wind gusts of 100 km/hr blowing from the North-Northwest at 6:00pm today.

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) that will bring on and off, light to moderate to at times heavy rains over the western sections of Southern and Central Luzon, MiMaRoPa and Visayas incl. Zamboanga Peninsula especially along the coastal areas.

Where is Nida (Carina)?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 31...0900 GMT.  The center was located along the northwestern shores of Northern Cagayan  (near 18.4N 121.6E), about 15 km north-northwest of Aparri, Cagayan or 85 km east of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 110 kph near the center...Gustiness: 130 kph

Where is it heading?

Northwest @ 24 kph, towards the northern coastal areas of Ilocos Norte.

What areas will be most affected?

Northern Luzon particularly Northern Cagayan, Apayao and Ilocos Norte – tonight through Monday morning (Aug 01).

Storm Surge Info


2-Day Forecast Outlook

TS NIDA (CARINA) is expected to maintain its northwesterly track for the next 24 hours before bending west-northwesterly throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, NIDA (CARINA) will traverse the coastal areas of Northern Ilocos Norte this evening and shall emerge over West Philippine Sea by early Monday morning.  By Monday mid-morning (Aug 01), the storm shall be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) via its northwestern border along the South China Sea. On Tuesday morning (Aug 02), NIDA (CARINA)  shall make landfall over or very near Hong Kong.

TS NIDA (CARINA) is expected to intensify for the next 24 to 36 hours before it starts to weaken at the end of the forecast outlook.  This storm could reach typhoon intensity as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea by early Monday morning.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

MONDAY AFTERNOON:  Over the northern part of the South China Sea (Outside of PAR), becomes a Typhoon...about 362 km southeast of Hong Kong [2PM AUG 01: 20.7N 117.3E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level:HIGH.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON:  Over Western Guangdong, weakens into a Tropical Storm...about 164 km west-northwest of Macao, China [2PM AUG 02: 22.7N 112.0E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  Dissipating over Southwestern China…about 256 km north of Mong Cai, Vietnam [2PM AUG 03: 23.8N 107.9E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 800 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):195 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun Jul 31, 2016
Location of Center: Near 18.4º N Lat 121.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 64 km WSW of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 90 km NNW of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan 
Distance 3: 108 km ENE of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte 
Distance 4: 101 km SSE of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 5: 426 km NNE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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