Sunday, July 31, 2016

Tropical Storm NIDA (CARINA) Update Number 007


Tropical Storm NIDA (CARINA) Update Number 007

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 31 July 2016
Next Update: Sunday Afternoon, 31 July 2016


Current Status

Tropical Storm NIDA (CARINA) has been almost stationary over the past 6 hours as it maintains its strength. It continues to threaten Extreme Northern Luzon. 

The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the northern tip of Cagayan this afternoon (Sunday) between 2:00 to 4:00 PM...with a Strike Probability of 70-80 percent.

Its rainbands will bring moderate to heavy rains across most parts of Northern Luzon today through Monday (Aug 01).

This cyclone will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) that will bring on and off, light to moderate to at times heavy rains along the western sections of Southern Luzon and Visayas.


Where is 06W  (Carina)?

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 31...2100 GMT.  The center was located over the northwestern part of the Central-East Philippine Sea (near 16.9N 123.9E), about 210 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora or 255 km southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.


How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center...Gustiness: 95 kph


Where is it heading?

Northwest @ 21 kph, towards the northwestern part of the Central-East Philippine Sea.


What areas will be most affected?

Extreme Northern Luzon particularly Cagayan incl. Babuyan and Calayan Islands – beginning today through Monday (Aug 01).



Storm Surge Info



2-Day Forecast Outlook

TS NIDA (CARINA) is expected to move northwestward throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, NIDA (CARINA) shall be over the northern tip of Cagayan by this afternoon (Jul 31) and shall traverse the Balintang Channel thereafter.  By Monday afternoon (Aug 01), the storm shall be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) via its northwestern border along the South China Sea.

TS NIDA (CARINA) is expected to intensify during the outlook period as it passes over warmer sea-surface temperatures and could likely reach typhoon intensity as it steps over the South China Sea.


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens further as it traverses the northern tip of Cagayan-BalintangChannel area...starts to leave the country…about 76 km north-northwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2AM AUG 01: 19.2N 120.5E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.


TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Typhoon as it nears the coasts of Guandong Province, China...about 183 km east-southeast of Hong Kong [2AM AUG 02: 21.9N 115.8E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.


WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens significantly into a Tropical Storm after making landfall over Guangdong, Southern China...moves further inland…about 328 km northwest of Macao, China [2AM AUG 03: 24.0N 111.0E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level:LOW.



*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.


Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Jul 31, 2016
Location of Center: Near 16.9
° N Lat 123.9° E Lon
Distance 1: 318 km N of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 160 km E of Palanan, Isabela 
Distance 3: 244 km ESE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 228 km SE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 399 km NE of Metro Manila


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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