Sunday, July 31, 2016

Tropical Storm NIDA (CARINA) Update Number 006


Tropical Storm NIDA (CARINA) Update Number 006

Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Sunday 31 July 2016
Next Update: Sunday Morning, 31 July 2016


Current Status

06W [CARINA] is now internationally known as NIDA (name of a girl in Thailand) continues to intensify while over the Philippine Sea…its threat to Northern Luzon increases as its track shifted more to the west-northwest. 


The Potential Landfall Area of this storm will be somewhere along the coasts of Isabela and Cagayan this morning (Sunday) between 7:00 to 9:00 AM...with a Strike Probability of 80-90 percent.


Its rainbands will bring moderate to heavy rains across most parts of Northern Luzon today through Monday morning (Aug 01).


Where is 06W  (Carina)?

As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, July 30...1500 GMT.  The center was located over the northwestern part of the Central-East Philippine Sea (near 16.7N 124.0E), about173 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela or 269 km southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.


How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center...Gustiness: 95 kph


Where is it heading?

West-Northwest to Northwest @ 19 kph, towards Isabela-Cagayan Area.


What areas will be most affected?

Extreme Northern Luzon particularly Northern Isabela, Cagayan incl. Babuyan and Calayan Islands – beginning tonight through Sunday Evening (Jul 31) or early Monday morning (Aug 01).



Storm Surge Info



2-Day Forecast Outlook

TS NIDA (CARINA) is expected to turn to the northwest throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, NIDA (CARINA) shall make landfall over the eastern shoreline of Northern Isabela or Cagayan by Sunday morning (Jul 31) and shall traverse Extreme Norhern Luzon thereafter.  By Monday evening (Aug 01), the storm shall be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) via its northwestern border along the South China Sea.

TS NIDA (CARINA) is expected to intensify normally throughout the outlook period as the system gains latitude and passes over the warmer sea-surface temperatures of the Philippine Sea.  It could reach typhoon intensity while over the Balintang Channel.


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

SUNDAY EVENING: Shall be over Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte...about 81 km west-northwest of Aparri, Cagayan[8PM JUL 31: 18.7N 120.9E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.


MONDAY EVENING: Becomes a Typhoon as it moves out of the PAR on its way to Southern China...about 323 km southeast of Hong Kong [8PM AUG 01: 20.6N 116.8E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.


TUESDAY EVENING: Makes landfall over Western Guangdong in Southern China, just a TS...about 105 km west of Macao, China [8PM AUG 02: 22.0N 112.6E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.



*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.


Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sat Jul 30, 2016
Location of Center: Near 16.7º N Lat 124.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 210 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 240 km ESE of Ilagan City, Isabela 
Distance 3: 264 km ESE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 317 km SE of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 5: 397 km NE of Metro Manila


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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