Saturday, July 30, 2016

Tropical Storm 06W (CARINA) Update Number 005


Tropical Storm 06W (CARINA) Update Number 005

Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Saturday 30 July 2016
Next Update: Sunday Early Morning, 31 July 2016


Current Status

06W (CARINA) becomes a Tropical Storm as it swiftly moved barely north during the past 6 hours…now threatens Extreme Northern Luzon. 


The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the northern tip of Cagayan by tomorrow (Sunday)between 1:00 to 3:00 PM...with a Strike Probability of70-80 percent.


Its rainbands will start to bring moderate to heavy rains across Extreme Northern Luzon beginning tonight through Sunday evening (Jul 31).


Where is 06W  (Carina)?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 30...0900 GMT.  The center was located over the northwestern part of the Central-East Philippine Sea (near 16.4N 125.6E), about374 km east of Casiguran, Aurora or 430 km southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.


How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph


Where is it heading?

North-Northwest @ 19 kph, towards the Northwestern part of the Central-East Philippine Sea.


What areas will be most affected?

Extreme Northern Luzon particularly Cagayan incl. Babuyan and Calayan Islands – beginning tonight through Sunday Evening (Jul 31).



Storm Surge Info



2-Day Forecast Outlook

TS 06W (CARINA) is expected to return to its normal speed of 20 km/hr with a turn to the northwest throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, 06W (CARINA) shall be over the northern tip of Cagayan by Sunday afternoon (Jul 31) and shall traverse the Balintang Channel thereafter.  By Monday afternoon (Aug 01), the storm shall be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) via its northwestern border along the South China Sea.

TS 06W (CARINA) is expected to intensify throughout the outlook period as the system gains latitude and passes over the warmer sea-surface temperatures of the Philippine Sea.  It could reach typhoon intensity while over the Balintang Channel.


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens further as it traverses the northern tip of Cagayan...about 22 km north of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM JUL 31: 18.6N 122.2E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.


MONDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Typhoon as it moves out of the PAR on its way to Southern China...about 385 km east-southeast of Hong Kong [2PM AUG 01: 20.8N 117.6E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.


TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over Southern China (Western Guangdong), just a TS...about 145 km west-northwest of Macao, China [2PM AUG 02: 22.7N 112.2E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.



*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.


Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Jul 30, 2016
Location of Center: Near 16.4º N Lat 125.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 297 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 347 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela 
Distance 3: 436 km ESE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 470 km SE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 522 km ENE of Metro Manila


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Save time and get your email on the go with the Yahoo Mail app
Get the beautifully designed, lighting fast, and easy-to-use Yahoo Mail today. Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.



No comments: