Thursday, July 07, 2016

Super Typhoon NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) Update Number 004


Super Typhoon NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) Update Number 004

Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Thursday 07 July 2016
Next Update: Thursday Evening, 07 July 2016


Current Status

Super Typhoon NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) has maintained its strength while it continues to slow-down, endangering Taiwan and Southeastern China. Meanwhile, Batanes Province and the coastal areas of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte will experience Nepartak's outer rainbands today.

This typhoon will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring "on-and-off" rains with thunderstorms and gusty winds across MiMaRoPa, Visayas and Mindanao - becoming more frequent along the western sections today. Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the western sections of Luzon will begin to feel the monsoon by later today.


Where is Nepartak  (Butchoy)?

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 07...2100 GMT.  The eye was located over the western part of the North Philippine Sea (near 21.0N 124.8E), about 296 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes or 389 km. northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan


How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 260 kph near the center...Gustiness: 305 kph


Where is it heading?

West-Northwest @ 17 kph, towards Southeastern Taiwan.


What areas will be most affected?

Taiwan including Yaeyama Islands - Today through Friday evening (Jul 8).


Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 7 m (3 to 24 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Taiwan incl. Yaeyama Islands, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands – today until Friday (Jul 7-8).


2-Day Forecast Outlook

STY NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) is expected to slow-down further while maintaining its west-northwest movement for the next 24 hours, turning northwesterly throughout the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) will traverse the western part of the North Philippine Sea by late today and shall make landfall over Southeastern Taiwan, passing to the south of Hualien City, Taiwan on Friday morning (Jul 8) around sunrise. It shall then cross the mountains of the northern part of Southern Taiwan between 8am to 6pm Friday and emerging over Taiwan Strait by Saturday (Jul 9) early morning.

STY NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) is expected to lose strength throughout the outlook period as the system encounters land interaction with Taiwan and Southeastern China.


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens as it bears down the eastern coast of Taiwan, prepares to make landfall...about 145 km south of Hualien City, Taiwan [2AM JUL 08: 22.7N 121.7E @ 205kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.


SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Just a TS as it weaken off Taiwan Strait, slows down further...about 146 km east-southwest of Xiamen City, China [2AM JUL 09: 24.2N 119.5E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipating over the northern part of Fujian Province, China, downgraded to a TD...about 173 km west-northwest of Fuzhou City, China [2AM JUL 10: 26.7N 117.7E @ 45kph]. Confidence Level:



*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Other Storm Info


- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 911 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 580 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 140 km from the center



Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu Jul 07, 2016
Location of Center: Near 21.0º N Lat 124.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 312 km E of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 468 km SE of Hualien City, Taiwan
Distance 3: 393 km ENE of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 4: 812 km NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 552 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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