Friday, July 08, 2016

Super Typhoon NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) Update Number 005


Super Typhoon NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) Update Number 005

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 07 July 2016
Next Update: Friday Early Morning, 08 July 2016


Current Status

Super Typhoon NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) has slightly weakend its strength as it continues to move closer to the southeastern coasts of Taiwan, endangering the country and Southeastern China. Meanwhile, Batanes Province and the coastal areas of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte will experience Nepartak's outer rainbands today. WPF AWS in Basco, Batanes (Philippine Airlines) has recorded a wind gust of 76 kph blowing from the West at 4:10 PM today (July 7).

This typhoon will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring "on-and-off" rains with thunderstorms and gusty winds across Luzon and Visayas - becoming more frequent along the western sections including Metro Manila tonight and tomorrow.


Where is Nepartak  (Butchoy)?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 07...0900 GMT.  The eye was located over the western part of the North Philippine Sea (near 21.7N 122.8E), about 160 km northeast of Basco, Batanes or 360 km. north of Santa Ana, Cagayan


How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 250 kph near the center...Gustiness: 305 kph


Where is it heading?

Northwest @ 16 kph, towards Southeastern Taiwan.


What areas will be most affected?

Taiwan including Yaeyama Islands - Tonight through Friday afternoon (Jul 8).


Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 7 m (3 to 24 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Taiwan incl. Yaeyama Islands, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands – tonight until Friday (Jul 7-8).


2-Day Forecast Outlook

STY NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) is expected to continue moving slowly while shifting its course generally to the northwest throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) shall make landfall along the northern coast of Taitung County early tomorrow morning and shall traverse the northern part of Southern Taiwan emerging over Taiwan Strait through Friday afternoon (Jul 8).

STY NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) is expected to lose strength throughout the outlook period as the system encounters land interaction with Taiwan and Southeastern China.


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens as it crosses Southern Taiwan...about 125 km west-southwest of Hualien City, Taiwan [2PM JUL 08: 23.8N 120.4E @ 150kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.


SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Just a TS as it makes its second landfall over Fujian Province...about 25 km north-northeast of Xiamen City, China [2AM JUL 09: 25.5N 118.6E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipating over the northern part of Jiangxi Province, China, just an area of low pressure...about 245 km northwest of Fuzhou City, China [2AM JUL 10: 27.5N 117.4E @ 35kph]. Confidence Level:



*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Other Storm Info


- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 280 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 914 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 460 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 155 km from the center



Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Jul 07, 2016
Location of Center: Near 21.7º N Lat 122.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 142 km NE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 281 km SSE of Hualien City, Taiwan
Distance 3: 296 km NNE of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 4: 807 km NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 390 km SSE of Taipei, Taiwan


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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