Saturday, July 30, 2016

Tropical Depression 06W (CARINA) Update Number 004


Tropical Depression 06W (CARINA) Update Number 004

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday 30 July 2016
Next Update: Saturday Evening, 30 July 2016


Current Status

Tropical Depression 06W (CARINA) has maintained its strength as it continues to move North-northwest towards the northwestern part of the Central-East Philippine Sea.


Its rain bands will continue to dump moderate to heavy rains across Bicol Region through the end of the day.


Where is 06W (Carina)?

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, July 30...0300 GMT.  The center was located over the west-central part of the East Philippine Sea (near 14.4N 126.5E), about 264 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 518 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora.


How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph


Where is it heading?

Northwest @ 18 kph, towards the Northwestern part of the Central-East Philippine Sea.


What areas are currently affected?

Bicol Region - Today through Sunday (Jul 31).

Storm Surge Info


2-Day Forecast Outlook

TD 06W (CARINA) is expected to move generally northwestward during the next 24 hours, accelerating and bending to the west-northwest through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, 06W (CARINA) will be traversing the northern tip of Cagayan by Sunday evening (Jul 31).

TD 06W (CARINA) is expected to intensify throughout the outlook period as it moves over warmer sea-surface temperatures.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

SUNDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves northwest towards the northwestern part of the Central-East Philippine Sea...about 270 km southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8AM JUL 31: 16.9N 124.1E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.


MONDAY MORNING: Intensifies further over the northern part of the West Philippine Sea, as it is about to exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 213 km northwest ofPagudpud, Ilocos Norte [8AM AUG 01: 19.6N 119.1E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

TUESDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a Typhoon over the northern part of the South China Sea, as it nears the eastern coasts of Guandong Province, China…about 167 km east-southeast of Hong Kong City, China [8AM AUG 02: 21.8N 115.6E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: 



*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Other Storm Info


- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 420 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 650 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None



Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat Jul 30, 2016
Location of Center: Near 14.4º N Lat 126.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 297 km NE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 330 km NNE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar
Distance 3: 350 km ENE of Iriga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 4: 367 km ENE of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 591 km E of Metro Manila


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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