Saturday, July 30, 2016



Tropical Depression CARINA Update Number 001

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday 29 July 2016
Next Update: Saturday Early Morning, 30 July 2016


Current Status

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 96W east of the Visayashas developed into a Tropical Depression named locally as CARINA. The outer rainbands associated with this Depression are currently bringing scattered to widespread rains and some thunderstorms across the Visayas, Northern parts of Mindanao and Southern Bicol.


Where is (Carina)?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 29...0900 GMT.  The center of Tropical Depression Carina was located over the Southwestern part of the Central-East Philippine Sea (near 12.2N 127.8E), about 269 km east-northeast ofBorongan, Eastern Samar or 458 km east-southeast ofLegazpi City.


How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center...Gustiness: 65 kph


Where is it heading?

Northwest @ 15 kph, towards the Northwestern part of Central-East Philippine Sea


What areas are currently affected?

Visayas, Bicol Region and Northeastern Mindanao by its outer rainbands Tonight through Saturday (Jul 30)


Storm Surge Info


2-Day Forecast Outlook

TD CARINA is expected to continue moving northwestward throughout the outlook period, accelerating slightly on the second day. On the forecast track, CARINA will be nearing the northeastern tip of Cagayan by Sunday afternoon (Jul 31).

TD CARINA is expected to slowly intensify throughout the outlook period as it passes over warmer sea surface temperatures.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly gains strength as it continues to move northwest...about 254 km northeast ofVirac, Catanduanes [2PM JUL 30: 14.8N 126.2E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.


SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it nears Northeastern Cagayan...about 121 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM JUL 31: 18.2N 123.2E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens further after passing the Babuyan Channel in a west-northwest track…about 314 km west-northwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte[2PM AUG 01: 19.6N 118.0E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level:



*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Other Storm Info


- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 650 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):N/A



Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Jul 29, 2016
Location of Center: Near 12.2º N Lat 127.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 265 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 366 km NE of Surigao City
Distance 3: 324 km ENE of Tacloban City
Distance 4: 420 km SE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 782 km SE of Metro Manila


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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