Sunday, July 31, 2016

Tropical Storm NIDA (CARINA) Update Number 008


Tropical Storm NIDA (CARINA) Update Number 008

Issued at: 1:30 PM PhT (05:30 GMT) Sunday 31 July 2016
Next Update: Sunday Evening, 31 July 2016       


Current Status

NIDA (CARINA) has gained more strength as it moves closer to Northeastern Luzon, bringing serious threat across the area.

The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the northern tip of Cagayan this afternoon (Sunday) between 2:00 to 4:00 PM...with a Strike Probability of 70-80 percent.

Its rainbands are currently dumping moderate to heavy rains across most parts of Luzon particularly Cagayan and Isabela.

This cyclone will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) that will bring on and off, light to moderate to at times heavy rains over the western sections of Southern Luzon and Visayas especially along the coastal areas.

Where is NIDA  (Carina)?

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, July 31...0300 GMT.  The center was located over the northwestern part of the Central-East Philippine Sea (near 17.6N 122.7E), just off the eastern coast of Southern Cagayan, about 113 km southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 166 km north-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora.


How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center...Gustiness: 120 kph


Where is it heading?

Northwest @ 21 kph, towards Northern Cagayan


What areas will be most affected?

Northern Luzon particularly Cagayan, NorthernIsabela, Babuyan and Calayan Islands – today through early Monday (Aug 01).



Storm Surge Info



2-Day Forecast Outlook

TS NIDA (CARINA) is expected to move northwestward during the next 24 hours, bending slightly to the west-northwest on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, NIDA (CARINA) shall make landfall over the northeastern tip of Cagayan this afternoon and shall move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow morning (Aug01). It shall then make its second landfall along the coast of Guandong Province, China on Tuesday morning (Aug 02)

TS NIDA (CARINA) is expected to further gain strength during the outlook period and could likely reach typhoon intensity before it steps over the South China Sea.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

MONDAY MORNING: Becomes a Typhoon as it is about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 224 km north-northwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [8AM AUG 01: 20.1N 119.4E @ 120kph].Confidence Level: HIGH.


TUESDAY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it bends to the west-northwest…about to make its second landfall along the central coast of Guandong Province, China...about 32 km east-northeast of Hong Kong [8AM AUG 02: 22.5N 114.4E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level:MEDIUM.


WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it traverses Guangdong Province, China...moves further inland in a west-northwest track…about 471 km northwest of Macau, China [8AM AUG 03: 24.4N 109.6E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.



*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 805 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 45 km from the center.


Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun Jul 31, 2016
Location of Center: Near 17.6
° N Lat 122.7° E Lon
Distance 1: 424 km NNW of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 74 km NNE of Palanan, Isabela 
Distance 3: 103 km E of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4:140 km SE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 376 km NNE of Metro Manila


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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