Wednesday, July 06, 2016

Super Typhoon NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) Update Number 002


Super Typhoon NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) Update Number 002

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday 06 July 2016
Next Update: Wednesday Evening, 06 July 2016


Current Status

NEPARTAK rapidly becomes a Super Typhoon as it races closer to Taiwan.  This powerful typhoon will gradually enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring moderate to heavy "on-and-off" rains and gusty winds across MiMaRoPa, Western Visayas and Western Mindanao.


Where is Nepartak (Butchoy)?

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, July 06...2100 GMT.  The eye was located over the southern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.2N 130.9E), about 919 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 968 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes.


How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 220 kph near the center...Gustiness: 280 kph


Where is it heading?

West-Northwest to Northwest  @ 33 kph, towards Taiwan.


What areas will be most affected?

Taiwan including Yaeyama Islands - Beginning Thursday afternoon (Jul 7) through Friday afternoon  (Jul 8).


Storm Surge Info


2-Day Forecast Outlook

TY NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) is expected to maintain its west-northwest track during the next 24 hours, turning slightly to the northwest throughout the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) will traverse the western part of the North Philippine Sea through Thursday afternoon (Jul 7), and shall be just along the coast of Eastern Taiwan by early Friday morning (Jul 8).

TY NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) is forecast to further intensify during the next 24 hours before it weakens throughout the outlook period.


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Reaches its peak intensity while moving across the western part of the North Philippine Sea...about 378 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM JUL 07: 21.0N 125.6E @ 250kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.


FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to weaken as it bears down along the eastern shoreline of Taiwan...about 90 km south of Hualien City, Taiwan [2AM JUL 08: 23.2N 121.7E @ 215kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.


SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes its second landfall over Fujian Province, China…weakens rapidly into a minimal typhoon...about 93 km south-southwest of Fuzhou City, China [2AM JUL 09: 25.4N 118.8E @ 155kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.


*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Other Storm Info


- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 120 mm
  [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 914 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 475
  km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 140
  km from the center



Additional Distances


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Jul 06, 2015
Location of Center: Near 18.2º N Lat 130.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 961 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 965 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 982 km EAST of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 1123 km ENE of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 1222 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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