Tuesday, July 05, 2016

Typhoon NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) Update Number 001


Typhoon NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) Update Number 001

Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Tuesday 05 July 2016
Next Update: Wednesday Early Morning, 06 July 2016


Current Status

NEPARTAK has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it rapidly becomes a Typhoon…now poses a threat to Taiwan.  This typhoon will gradually enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring moderate to heavy "on-and-off" rains and gusty winds across MiMaRoPa, Western Visayas and Western Mindanao.


Where is Nepartak (Butchoy)?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 05...0900 GMT.  The eye was located over the easternmost part of the North Philippine Sea (near 16.6N 134.2E), about 1,291 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora or 1,356 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes.


How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 150 kph near the center...Gustiness: 185 kph


Where is it heading?

West-Northwest to Northwest @ 33 kph, towards Taiwan-Ryukyu Area.


What areas will be most affected?

Taiwan including Yaeyama Islands - Beginning Thursday evening (Jul 7) through Friday evening (Jul 8).


Storm Surge Info


2-Day Forecast Outlook

TY NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) is expected to turn northwestward during the next 24 hours, and will maintain this track through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) shall continue to traverse the central and northern parts of the North Philippine Sea through Thursday afternoon (Jul 7).

TY NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) is forecast to further intensify throughout the outlook period.


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to gain strength as it traverses the central part of the North Philippine Sea...about 692 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM JUL 06: 19.9N 128.6E @ 200kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.


THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Reaches its peak intensity as it moves across the northern part of the North Philippine Sea...about 325 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM JUL 07: 22.9N 123.8E @ 215kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over Northern Taiwan…weakens rapidly...about 22 km south of Taipei, Tauwan [2PM JUL 08: 24.8N 121.6E @ 155kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.



*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Other Storm Info


·       24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 50 mm [Moderate]

·       Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)

·       Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 590 km (Small)

·       Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 100 km from the center



Additional Distances


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue Jul 05, 2015
Location of Center: Near 16.6º N Lat 134.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 1124 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1289 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 3: 1333 km ESE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 1420 km ENE of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 1607 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph



Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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