Saturday, July 30, 2016



Tropical Depression 06W (CARINA) Update Number 002

Issued at:  1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Saturday 30 July 2016
Next Update:  Saturday Morning, 30 July 2016


Current Status

Tropical Depression 06W (CARINA) has drifted westward during the past six hours as it continues to slowly organize over Philippine Sea, east of Northern Samar. 


Its developing rainbands will continue to dump moderate to heavy rains across Visayas and the Bicol Region tonight through Saturday.


Where is 06W  (Carina)?

As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, July 29...1500 GMT.  The center was located over the southwestern part of the Central-East Philippine Sea (near 12.2N 127.2E), about207 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar or 396 km east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay.


How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center...Gustiness: 65 kph


Where is it heading?

North-Northwest @ 19 kph, towards the Northwestern part of the Central-East Philippine Sea.


What areas are currently affected?

Visayas and Bicol Region – Tonight through Saturday (Jul 30).



Storm Surge Info



2-Day Forecast Outlook

TD 06W (CARINA) is expected to move on a slightly faster north-northwest to northwesterly direction during the outlook period. On the forecast track, 06W (CARINA) shall be over the northern tip of Cagayan by Sunday evening (Jul 31).

TD 06W (CARINA) is expected to intensify throughout the outlook period as the system gains latitude and passes over warmer sea-surface temperatures.


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

SATURDAY EVENING: Becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as moves across the northwestern part of the Central-East Philippine Sea...about 357 km east-southeast ofCasiguran, Aurora [8PM JUL 30: 15.3N 125.3E @ 85kph].Confidence Level: HIGH.


SUNDAY EVENING: Makes landfall over the northern tip of Cagayan as it reaches near-Typhoon intensity...about 33 km south-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8PM JUL 31: 18.2N 122.2E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.


MONDAY EVENING: Already outside of PAR as a typhoon while over the northern part of the South China Sea...about 406 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [8PM AUG 01: 20.1N 117.4E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level:LOW.



*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 420 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 650 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.


Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri Jul 29, 2016
Location of Center: Near 12.2º N Lat 127.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 274 km ESE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 360 km SE of Virac, Catanduanes 
Distance 3: 433 km ESE of Iriga City, Cam Sur
Distance 4: 461 km SE of Metro Naga, Cam Sur
Distance 5: 722 km SE of Metro Manila


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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