Wednesday, July 06, 2016

Super Typhoon NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) Update Number 003


Super Typhoon NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) Update Number 003

Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Wednesday 06 July 2016
Next Update: Thursday Early Morning, 07 July 2016


Current Status

Super Typhoon NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) has grew more stronger as it maintains its track while slowing down a bit. Now endangers Taiwan with its full fury. Meanwhile, Batanes Province will experience its outer rainbands beginning Thursday (July 07).

This typhoon will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring moderate to heavy "on-and-off" rains with thunderstorms and gusty winds across MiMaRoPa, Visayas, Bicol Region, and Mindanao - becoming more frequent along the western sections today. Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the western sections of Luzon will begin to feel the monsoon by Thursday (July 07).


Where is Nepartak  (Butchoy)?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, July 06...0900 GMT.  The eye was located over the central part of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.7N 127.6E), about 596 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 590 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes.


How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 260 kph near the center...Gustiness: 305 kph


Where is it heading?

West-Northwest to Northwest @ 25 kph, towards Taiwan.


What areas will be most affected?

Taiwan including Yaeyama Islands - Beginning Thursday afternoon (Jul 7) through Friday evening (Jul 8).


Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 7 m (3 to 24 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Taiwan incl. Yaeyama Islands, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands – Beginning Thursday afternoon until Friday afternoon (Jul 7-8).

2-Day Forecast Outlook

TY NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) is expected to turn northwestward during the next 24 hours, but will start to slow-down on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) will traverse the western part of the North Philippine Sea by Thursday afternoon (Jul 7). It shall then make landfall over Eastern Taiwan, passing over or very close to Hualien City, Taiwan on Friday early morning (Jul 8) and traverse the mountains of Central and Western Taiwan, Friday afternoon.

TY NEPARTAK (BUTCHOY) is likely to have reached its peak intensity and shall start to weaken slowly throughout the outlook period.


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to weaken as it approaches the eastern coast of Taiwan...about 256 km northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM JUL 07: 22.4N 123.4E @ 250kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.


FRIDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Western Taiwan, weakens rapidly into a minimal typhoon...about 120 km southwest of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM JUL 08: 24.2N 120.8E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Makes its final landfall over Fujian Province, China, downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 73 km north-northwest of Fuzhou City, China [2PM JUL 09: 26.8N 119.0E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level:



*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Other Storm Info


- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 150 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 911 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 590 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 150 km from the center



Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed Jul 06, 2016
Location of Center: Near 19.7º N Lat 127.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 641 km ENE of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 2: 664 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 617 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 909 km NE of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 845 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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