Monday, August 01, 2016

Tropical Storm NIDA (CARINA) Update Number 010


Tropical Storm NIDA (CARINA) Update Number 010

Issued at: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Monday 01 August 2016
Next Update: Monday Morning, 01 August 2016


Current Status

Tropical Storm NIDA (CARINA) is now emerging over the southern part of the Balintang Channel after passing along the coastal areas of Northern Ilocos Norte a few hours ago. Its rainbands will continue to bring occasionally moderate to heavy rains with gusty winds across Northern Luzon especially the western sections. 

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) that will bring on and off, light to moderate to at times heavy rains over the western sections of Southern and Central Luzon, MiMaRoPa and Visayas incl. Zamboanga Peninsula especially along the coastal areas.

Where is Nida (Carina)?

As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, July 31...1500 GMT.  The center was located very close to the northern coast of Ilocos Norte  (near 18.9N 120.6E), about 39 km north-northwest of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte or 67 km north of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 110 kph near the center...Gustiness: 130 kph

Where is it heading?

Northwest @ 24 kph, towards the northern part of the West Philippine and South China Seas.

What areas will be most affected?

Northern Luzon particularly Ilocos Provinces incl. Apayao and Northern Cagayan – tonight through Monday morning (Aug 01).

Storm Surge Info


2-Day Forecast Outlook

TS NIDA (CARINA) is expected to bend to the west-northwest for the next 24 hours before moving westward throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, NIDA (CARINA) will emerge over the West Philippine Sea this morning and shall move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibiity (PAR) later today.  By Monday evening (Aug 01), the storm shall be over the northern part of the South China Sea.  On Tuesday morning (Aug 02), NIDA (CARINA)  shall make landfall over or very near Macau-Hong Kong Area.

TS NIDA (CARINA) is expected to still intensify for the next 24 to 36 hours before it starts to weaken at the end of the forecast outlook.  This storm could become a typhoon later today.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

MONDAY EVENING:  Over the northern part of the South China Sea (Outside of PAR), approaching Hong Kong as it becomes a Typhoon...about 249 km southeast of Hong Kong [8PM AUG 01: 21.1N 116.3E @ 150kph].Confidence Level: HIGH.

TUESDAY EVENING:  Over Western Guangdong, China, weakens into a Tropical Storm...about 220 km west-northwest of Macau, China [8PM AUG 02: 22.9N 111.5E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY  EVENING:  Dissipating over Southwestern China, just an area of low pressure…about 101 km north-northeast of Hanoi, Vietnam [8PM AUG 03: 23.7N 106.8E @ 30kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 800 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):200 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sun Jul 31, 2016
Location of Center: Near 18.9º N Lat 120.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 124 km WNW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 135 km NNE of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur 
Distance 3: 224 km SW of Basco, Batanes 
Distance 4: 177 km NW of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan 
Distance 5: 470 km NNW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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