Wednesday, May 06, 2015

Typhoon NOUL Update #007


for Wednesday, 06 May 2015 [7:49 PM PhT]


Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Wednesday 06 May 2015
Next Update: Thursday Morning, 07 May 2015

NOUL has intensified into a Typhoon as it slightly increases its forward speed while moving away from the Yap State of Micronesia...Forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight or early Thursday morning. This storm is still far to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 48 hours.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon incl. the Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of NOUL (06W).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None for the next 1 to 2 days.


As of 5:00 PM PhT today, May 06...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY NOUL (06W)
Location: Over Western Micronesia-Eastern Philippine Sea Area (near 9.6N 136.5E)
About: 175 km west-northwest of Colonia, Yap...or 1,205 km east-southeast of Eastern Visayas, PH
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center...Gustiness: 150 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 976 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 720 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 55 km from the center
Past Movement: West @ 13 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 19 kph
Towards: Eastern Philippine Sea


TY NOUL (06W) is expected to move west-northwest with an increase in forward speed throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul shall enter the eastern border of PAR late tonight or early Thursday morning. By Friday afternoon, it shall be over the central part of the Philippine Sea.

NOUL will continue to intensify throughout the forecast period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 195 kph by Friday afternoon (May 8).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens further as it moves west-northwestward over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea...about 810 km east-southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2PM MAY 07: 10.8N 133.1E @ 150kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Continues with its west-northwest track across the central part of the Philippine Sea...intensifying further...about 390 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2PM MAY 08: 12.4N 128.9E @ 195kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Still gaining strength as it turns slightly to northwest...approaching the western part of the Philippine Sea...closer to the east coast of Catanduanes...about 155 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM MAY 09: 14.4N 125.5E @ 215kph].

*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed May 06, 2015
Location of Center: Near 9.6º N Lat 136.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 165 km E of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 335 km NE of Koror, Palau
Distance 3: 1000 km WSW of Hagatna, Guam
Distance 4: 1140 km E of Northeastern Mindanao, PH
Distance 5: 1380 km ESE of Bicol Region, PH









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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