Sunday, May 10, 2015

Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update #019


Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 019



Issued at: 1:30 AM PhT (17:30 GMT) Sunday 10 May 2015
Next Update: Sunday Morning, 10 May 2015
Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) has slowed down as it continues to rapidly intensify with the re-emergence of a clear eye...seriously threatening Northeastern Luzon particularly Eastern Isabela and Northern Cagayan. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the eastern shores of Isabela or Cagayan by Sunday afternoon or evening (May 10)...with a Strike Probability of 80 to 90 percent.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Northern Luzon incl. Batanes Islands and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of NOUL (DODONG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Catanduanes - today (May 09) through Sunday morning (May 10); Isabela and Cagayan - beginning Sunday morning (May 10) through Monday afternoon (May 11).
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Bicol Region - today (May 09) through Sunday morning (May 10); Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands, Aurora and Quirino - Sunday (May 10) through Monday (May 11).
  • Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Eastern coasts of Northern Isabela and Cagayan - Sunday (May 10).
  • Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Eastern coasts of Southern Isabela - Sunday (May 10).
  • Moderate to Strong Winds (Gusts of up to 75 kph): Rest of Isabela and Cagayan, and Northern Aurora - Sunday (May 10).


As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, May 09...1500 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY NOUL (DODONG)
Location: Over the West-Central part of the Philippine Sea (near 15.8N 124.1E)
About: 220 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora...or 225 km southeast of Palanan, Isabela
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 200 kph near the center...Gustiness: 240 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 470 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 150 km North from the center and 130 km south from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 15 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 14 kph
Towards: Northeastern Luzon


TY NOUL (DODONG) is expected to continue moving northwestward at a normal speed for the next 24 hours...turning sharply north-northwest to north-northeastward on the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will be approaching the eastern shores of Northern Isabela Sunday morning (May 10) and shall make landfall near or over Isabela-Cagayan areas by late Sunday afternoon or evening. The typhoon shall then traverse Northeastern Cagayan passing over or very close to Santa Ana, Cagayan on or before midnight...and could be over the Bashi Channel on Monday morning through the afternoon.

NOUL (DODONG) will likely strengthen further within the next 24 hours...and afterwards it will start to weaken due to the frictional effect of the mountain ranges of Northeastern Luzon to its circulation upon making landfall. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds retain at 200 kph tomorrow afternoon.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SUNDAY EVENING: Making landfall over Northeastern Cagayan...about 80 km South of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8PM MAY 10: 17.9N 122.2E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY EVENING: Turns to the north while emerging over the Balintang Channel...weakens after traversing Northeastern Luzon...about 230 km northeast of Basco, Batanes [8PM MAY 11: 22.2N 123.3E @ 150kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY EVENING: Recurves sharply to the northeast and accelerates, across the Batanes Group of Islands...weakens significantly into a strong Tropical Storm (TS)...about 150 km east-northeast of Okinawa, Japan [8PM MAY 12: 27.0N 129.2E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sat May 09, 2015
Location of Center: Near 15.8º N Lat 124.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 190 km North of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 265 km E of Baler, Aurora
Distance 3: 225 km N of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
Distance 4: 265 km NNE of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 230 km NNE of Daet, Camarines Norte.





>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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