Saturday, May 09, 2015

Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update #014


for Friday, 08 May 2015 [1:00 PM PhT]

Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 014



Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Friday 08 May 2015
Next Update: Saturday Early Morning, 09 May 2015
Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) has maintained its strength as it moved in a generally west-northwesterly track during the past 6 hours over the south-central part of the Philippine Sea...likely to pass close to the north of Catanduanes by Saturday afternoon (May 09). The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the eastern shores of Isabela or Cagayan by Sunday afternoon (May 10)...with a Strike Probability of 60 to 80 percent.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon incl. the Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of NOUL (DODONG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Catanduanes and the easternmost part of Camarines Sur - tomorrow (Saturday, May 09); Most parts of Bicol Region - beginning Saturday afernoon (May 09) through Sunday (May 10); Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands, Aurora, Isabela and Cagayan - Sunday (May 10) through Monday (May 11).


As of 5:00 PM PhT today, May 08...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY NOUL (DODONG)
Location: Over the South-Central part of the Philippine Sea (near 12.9N 128.5E)
About: 365 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 460 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 175 kph near the center...Gustiness: 215 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 50 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 730 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 120 km North from the center and 110 km south from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 18 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest to Northwest @ 20 kph
Towards: Eastern Luzon


TY NOUL (DODONG) is expected to move west-northwestward during the next 24 hours...turning to northwest on the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will be approaching the northeastern shores of Catanduanes on Saturday afternoon and shall be nearing the eastern shores of Isabela through Sunday morning (May 10). It will make landfall along the eastern shores of Isabela by Sunday noontime.

NOUL (DODONG) is still expected to gain strength within the next 24 hours...and afterwards it will start to gradually weaken due to the frictional effect of the mountain ranges of Northeastern Luzon to its circulation upon making landfall. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 205 kph on Saturday afternoon (May 09).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Gaining strength as it approaches the northeastern shores of Catanduanes...about 150 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM MAY 09: 14.7N 125.1E @ 205kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Turns to northwest...and makes landfall along Eastern Isabelavand...weakens slightly...about 35 km north-northwest of Palanan, Isabela [2PM MAY 10: 17.3N 122.3E @ 200kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Turns sharply to the north, over the Batanes Group of Islands...weakens significantly...about 35 km north-northwest of Basco, Batanes [2PM MAY 11: 20.8N 121.9E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri May 08, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 12.9º N Lat 128.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 370 km NE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 430 km NE of Siargao Island
Distance 3: 490 km E of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 520 km ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 580 km ESE of Metro Naga





>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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