Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 020

Super Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 020

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON NOUL (DODONG) UPDATE NUMBER 020
Issued at: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Sunday 10 May 2015
Next Update: Sunday Afternoon, 10 May 2015

NOUL (DODONG) on its course of intensification has reached the strength of a Super Typhoon...seriously threatening Northeastern Luzon particularly Eastern Isabela and Northern Cagayan. The Potential Landfall Area of its eyewall will be somewhere along the eastern tip of Northeastern Cagayan by Sunday evening (May 10)...with a Strike Probability of 80 to 90 percent.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Northern Luzon incl. Batanes Islands and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of NOUL (DODONG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Eastern Cagayan incl. the Babuyan Islands and Northeastern Isabela - Today through Monday morning (May 11).

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Rest of Isabela and Cagayan - Today through Monday morning (May 11); Batanes Group of Islands - Monday (May 11).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Aurora and Quirino - Today (May 10).

WINDS

Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Eastern coasts of Cagayan incl. the eastern islands of the Babuyan Group - late this afternoon (May 10) through early Monday morning (May 11); Batanes Group of Islands - Monday (May 11).

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Rest of Eastern Cagayan, eastern coasts of Isabela and rest of the Babuyan Group - Sunday (May 10).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of the eastern sections of Isabela and rest of Cagayan - Sunday (May 10).

Moderate to Strong Winds (Gusts of up to 75 kph): Rest of Isabela and Northern Aurora - Sunday (May 10).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, May 11...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: STY NOUL (DODONG)
Location: Over the West-Central part of the Philippine Sea (near 16.7N 123.6E)
About: 170 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora...or 130 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 220 kph near the center...Gustiness: 280 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 640 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 155 km North from the center and 140 km south from the center
Past Movement: North-northwest @ 19 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest to North-northwest @ 17 kph
Towards: Northeastern Luzon

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

STY NOUL (DODONG) is expected to move northwest to north-northwestward at a normal speed for the next 24 hours...turning sharply to the north and north-northeast on the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will be approaching the eastern shores of Northern Isabela and Cagayan today through this evening (May 10)...its western eyewall shall make landfall over the eastern tip of Northeastern Cagayan early tonight. The typhoon shall then traverse the Babuyan and Balintang Channels tonight through early Monday morning...and could be over Southern Ryukyus by early Tuesday morning.

NOUL (DODONG) will likely gradually weaken throughout the forecast period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds retain at 205 kph tomorrow early morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens as it turns north...traverses the Balintang Channel...about 90 km south-southeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM MAY 11: 19.7N 122.2E @ 205kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Recurves to the north-northeast and northeast across Bashi Channel...weakens further...about 460 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM MAY 12: 23.8N 124.6E @ 160kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns to the east-northeast and accelerates, across the Ryukyus...weakens significantly into a strong Tropical Storm (TS)...about 665 km east-northeast of Okinawa, Japan [2AM MAY 13: 28.7N 134.1E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun May 10, 2015
Location of Center: Near 16.7º N Lat 123.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 295 km North-northwest of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 240 km NE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 3: 225 km ESE of Tuguegarao, Cagayan
Distance 4: 345 km N of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 250 km SE of Santa Ana, Cagayan.