for Wednesday, 06 May 2015 [7:11 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM NOUL UPDATE NUMBER 006
Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Wednesday 06 May 2015
Next Update: Wednesday Evening, 06 May 2015
Tropical Storm NOUL has passed very close to Yap State...almost at Typhoon intensity. Forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early Thursday morning. This storm is still far to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 48 hours.
Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon incl. the Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of NOUL (06W).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
None for the next 1 to 2 days.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 AM PhT today, May 06...2100 GMT.
Classification/Name: TS NOUL (06W)
Location: Over the western part of the Federated States of Micronesia (near 9.6N 137.9E)
About: 25 km west-northwest of Colonia, Yap...or 1,345 km east-southeast of Eastern Visayas, PH
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 110 kph near the center...Gustiness: 140 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 976 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 30 km north from the center and 20 km south from the center
Past Movement: West @ 10 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 13 kph
Towards: Western Micronesia-Eastern Philippine Sea
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS NOUL (06W) is expected to start moving west-northwest with an increase in forward speed through the next 24 hours...and shall turn slightly northwestward during the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will move away from Western Micronesia today and shall enter the eastern border of PAR by early Thursday morning. By early Friday, it shall be over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea.
NOUL will continue to intensify throughout the forecast period...becoming a Typhoon today. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 165 kph by early Friday morning (May 8).
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Typhoon as it enters the PAR on a west-northwest track...about 1,065 km east-southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2AM MAY 07: 10.3N 135.4E @ 130kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns more to the west-northwest across the eastern part of the Philippine Sea...intensifying further...about 665 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2AM MAY 08: 11.8N 131.5E @ 165kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Still gaining strength as it moves northwestward across the central part of the Philippine Sea...closer to the east coast of Catanduanes...about 335 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM MAY 09: 13.9N 127.4E @ 195kph].
*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.
Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed May 06, 2015
Location of Center: Near 9.6º N Lat 137.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 320 km E of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 455 km NE of Koror, Palau
Distance 3: 860 km WSW of Hagatna, Guam
Distance 4: 1305 km E of Northeastern Mindanao, PH
Distance 5: 1550 km ESE of Bicol Region, PH
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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