Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 024

Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 024

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON NOUL (DODONG) UPDATE NUMBER 024
Issued at: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Monday 11 May 2015
Next Update: Monday Evening, 11 May 2015

Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) is now tracking northward across the Batanes Islands as it prepares to recurve towards the Ryukyu Islands of Southern Japan...continues to lose strength...strong winds and rains are still prevailing over the Batanes Group.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon incl. Batanes Islands and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of NOUL (DODONG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Batanes Group of Islands - today.

WINDS

Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Batanes Group of Islands - today.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Babuyan Islands - today.

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 2.7-3.9 m (9-12 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes Group of Islands - today. Exensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the Babuyan Islands. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, May 11 ...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY NOUL (DODONG)
Location: Over the Batanes Group of Islands (near 20.3N 121.8E)
About: 30 km southwest of Basco, Batanes...or 45 km south of Itbayat, Batanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 200 kph near the center...Gustiness: 240 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 420 km (Midget)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 155 km east from the center and 150 km west from the center
Past Movement: North @ 23 kph
Forecast Movement: North-northeast to Northeast @ 38 kph
Towards: Ryukyus

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY NOUL (DODONG) is expected to continue to move northward briefly and afterwards it will accelerate as it recurves to the north-northeast and northeast for the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will be passing across the Bashi Channel this morning and shall be moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on its way to the Ryukyu Islands late tonight. Noul shall be off the coast of Southern Honshu on Wednesday early morning.

NOUL (DODONG) shall weaken throughout the forecast period as it moves across an area of unfavorable atmospheric conditions. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to Tropical Storm strength at 95 kph on Wednesday early morning.

The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens as it accelerates North-Northeast to Northeastward, exiting the PAR...about 130 km southwest of Okinawa, Japan [2AM MAY 12: 26.0N 126.6E @ 150kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Skirting swiftly Southern Japan...weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 300 km northeast of Tokyo, Japan [2AM MAY 13: 37.6N 142.1E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon May 11, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 20.3º N Lat 121.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 210 km N of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 215 km NNW of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 3: 115 km NNE of Calayan Island
Distance 4: 230 km NNE of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 5: 920 km SW of Okinawa, Japan