Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 023

Super Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 023

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON NOUL (DODONG) UPDATE NUMBER 023
Issued at: 2:00 AM PhT (18:00 GMT) Monday 11 May 2015
Next Update: Monday Morning, 11 May 2015

Eye of Super Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) emerging over the Balintang Channel as it continues to lose strength...strong winds and rains will continue to prevail over Northeeastern Luzon.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon incl. Batanes Islands and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of NOUL (DODONG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Northeastern Cagayan incl. the Babuyan Islands, and Batanes Group of Islands - Tonight through Monday morning (May 11).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Cagayan and Northeastern Isabela - Tonight (May 10).

WINDS

Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Eastern coasts of Cagayan incl. the eastern islands of the Babuyan Group - late this afternoon (May 10) through early Monday morning (May 11); Batanes Group of Islands - Monday (May 11).

Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Rest of Eastern Cagayan, eastern coasts of Isabela and rest of the Babuyan Group - Sunday (May 10).

Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of the eastern sections of Isabela and rest of Cagayan - Sunday (May 10).

Moderate to Strong Winds (Gusts of up to 75 kph): Rest of Isabela and Northern Aurora - Sunday (May 10).

STORM SURGE

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 4.0-5.5 m (13-18 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Calayan Island - today...and across Batanes Group of Islands - early Monday morning (May 11). Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the Rest of Northern and Central Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, May 10 ...1500 GMT.

Classification/Name: STY NOUL (DODONG)
Location: Over the Balintang Channel (near 19.1N 122.1E)
About: 65 km east-southeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan...or 70 km north of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 220 kph near the center...Gustiness: 280 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 405 km (Midget)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 85 km North from the center and 75 km south from the center
Past Movement: North @ 16 kph
Forecast Movement: North-Northeast @ 20 kph
Towards: Batanes Group of Islands

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

STY NOUL (DODONG) is expected to move north to north-northwestward at an average speed for the next 24 hours...accelerating and turning to the northeast on the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will be passing over the Batanes Group of Islands early tomorrow morning. By early Tuesday morning, Noul shall be moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on its way to the Ryukyu Islands...and shall be off the coast of Southern Honshu on Tuesday evening.

NOUL (DODONG) shall weaken throughout the forecast period as it moves across an area of unfavorable atmospheric conditions. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to Tropical Storm strength at 100 kph on Tuesday evening.

The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

MONDAY EVENING: Weakens as it accelerates North to North-Northeastward, after traversing the Balintang Channel and the Batanes Group of Islands...about 285 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes [8PM MAY 11: 22.8N 123.2E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY EVENING: Passed swiftly across Okinawa and the Ryukyus...already outside of PAR...about 410 km southwest of Tokyo, Japan [8PM MAY 12: 32.8N 137.0E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sun May 10, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 19.1º N Lat 122.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 90 km NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 155 km SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 190 km SSE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 150 km ENE of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 5: 1010 km SW of Okinawa, Japan

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph