for Tuesday, 05 May 2015 [10:21 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM NOUL UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday 05 May 2015
Next Update: Wednesday Morning, 06 May 2015
Tropical Storm NOUL has gained strength as it tracked west-southwestward very-slowly over Western Micronesia...Forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by late Wednesday night or Thursday early morning. This storm is still far to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 2 to 3 days.
Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon incl. the Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of NOUL (06W).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
None for the next 2 to 3 days.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 PM PhT today, May 05...0900 GMT.
Classification/Name: TS NOUL (06W)
Location: Over the western part of the Federated States of Micronesia (near 9.4N 138.6E)
About: 55 km east-southeast of Colonia, Yap...or 1,425 km east-southeast of Eastern Visayas, PH
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center...Gustiness: 120 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 650 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Southwest @ 05 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 10 kph
Towards: Western Micronesia-Eastern Philippine Sea
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS NOUL (06W) is expected to move west to west-northwestward slowly within the next 24 hours...and continues with its west-northwest track on the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will move across Western Micronesia, passing over Yap State late tonight...and shall approach the P.A.R. by Wednesday midnight.
NOUL will continue to intensify throughout the forecast period. It is likely to become a Typhoon on Wednesday. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 160 kph by Thursday afternoon (May 7).
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Slowly moving away from Western Micronesia...approaches P.A.R. and becomes a Typhoon...about 165 km west-northwest of Colonia, Yap [2PM MAY 06: 9.6N 136.6E @ 120kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Turns west-northwest across the eastern part of the Philippine Sea...continues to intensify...about 830 km east-southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2PM MAY 07: 10.8N 133.3E @ 160kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies further and continues to move west-northwestward across the central part of the Philippine Sea...about 445 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2PM MAY 08: 12.5N 129.4E @ 185kph].
*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue May 05, 2015
Location of Center: Near 9.4º N Lat 138.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 395 km E of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 510 km ENE of Koror, Palau
Distance 3: 810 km SW of Hagatna, Guam
Distance 4: 1370 km E of Northeastern Mindanao, PH
Distance 5: 1620 km ESE of Bicol Region, PH
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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