Friday, May 08, 2015

Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update #012


for Friday, 08 May 2015 [8:25 AM PhT]


Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Friday 08 May 2015
Next Update: Friday Afternoon, 08 May 2015

Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) has slightly turned to the west during the past 6 hours while maintaining its strength over the Philippine Sea...likely to pass close to the north of Catanduanes by late Saturday afternoon (May 9). The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Eastern Isabela by Sunnday afternoon (May 10)...with a Strike Probability of 50 to 60 percent.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon incl. the Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of NOUL (DODONG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None for the next 12 to 24 hours.


As of 5:00 AM PhT today, May 08...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY NOUL (DODONG)
Location: Over the South-Central part of the Philippine Sea (near 12.0N 130.2E)
About: 535 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 675 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 175 kph near the center...Gustiness: 215 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 50 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 635 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 100 km North from the center and 85 km south from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 25 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 19 kph
Towards: Eastern Luzon


TY NOUL (DODONG) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward...gradually turning to the northwest on the latter part of the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will traverse the south-central part of the Philippine Sea today through Saturday morning and shall be passing near the northeastern coast of Catanduanes by Saturday afternoon and evening (May 09).

NOUL (DODONG) will continue to intensify throughout the forecast period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 200 kph on Sunday early morning (May 10).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it maintains its west-northwest track over the south-central part of the Philippine Sea with a slight turn to the northwest...about 325 km east-northeast of Sorsogon City [2AM MAY 09: 13.7N 127.0E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Passing close to the northeastern coastal areas of Catanduanes...intensifies further...about 170 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM MAY 10: 15.7N 123.6E @ 200kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the Babuyan Channel...weakens into a minimal typhoon after traversing Isabela and Cagayan...turns more northwesterly...about 30 km southwest of Calayan, Cagayn [2AM MAY 11: 19.1N 121.2E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri May 08, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 12.0º N Lat 130.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 505 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 505 km NE of Siargao Island
Distance 3: 670 km ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 695 km ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 780 km ESE of Metro Naga








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