for Monday, 04 May 2015 [7:49 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM NOUL UPDATE NUMBER 002
Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Monday 04 May 2015
Next Update: Monday Evening, 04 May 2015
06W is now named NOUL, a Korean word for Glows; Red Sky...intensifies into Tropical Storm as it moves across Western Micronesia. Forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning. This storm is still too far to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 5 to 6 days.
Residents and visitors along Western Micronesia, Palau, Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon incl. the Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of NOUL (06W).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
None for the next 5 to 6 days.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 AM PhT today, May 04...2100 GMT.
Classification/Name: TS NOUL (06W)
Location: Over the western part of the Federated States of Micronesia (near 9.8N 140.2E)
About: 235 km east-northeast of Colonia, Yap...or 1,590 km east-southeast of Eastern Visayas, PH
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 560 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: Northwest @ 17 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 07 kph
Towards: Western Micronesia
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS NOUL (06W) is expected to move west-northwestward throughout the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, Noul will move across Western Micronesia, passing over or very near Yap State on Tuesday...and shall approach the PAR on Wednesday.
NOUL will continue to intensify within the next 24 hours and continue strengthening throughout the forecast period. It is likely to become a Typhoon on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 130 kph by early Wednesday morning (May 6).
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Passing over or very near Yap State...becomes a strong TS...about 75 km northeast of Colonia, Yap [2AM MAY 05: 10.0N 138.7E @ 95kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Strenghens into a Typhoon as it moves away from Western Micronesia...about 135 km west-northwest of Colonia, Yap [2AM MAY 06: 10.2N 137.0E @ 130kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it slowly approaches the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 1,060 km east-southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2AM MAY 07: 10.7N 135.4E @ 175kph].
*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: LOW.
Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon May 04, 2015
Location of Center: Near 9.8º N Lat 140.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 570 km E of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 650 km SW of Hagatna, Guam
Distance 3: 685 km ENE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1570 km ENE of Northeastern Mindanao, PH
Distance 5: 1795 km ESE of Bicol Region, PH
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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