Saturday, May 09, 2015

Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update #016


for Saturday, 09 May 2015 [10:23 AM PhT]

Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 016



Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Saturday 09 May 2015
Next Update: Saturday Afternoon, 09 May 2015
Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) has maintained its strength as it moves closer to the northern shores of Bicol...will pass close to the northeast of Catanduanes by late this afternoon. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the eastern shores of Isabela or Cagayan by Sunday early afternoon (May 10)...with a Strike Probability of 60 to 80 percent.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon incl. the Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of NOUL (DODONG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Catanduanes - today (May 09) through Sunday morning (May 10); Isabela and Cagayan - beginning Sunday morning (May 10) through Monday afternoon (May 11).
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Bicol Region - today (May 09) through Sunday morning (May 10); Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands, Aurora and Quirino - Sunday (May 10) through Monday (May 11).
  • Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Eastern coasts of Northern Isabela and Cagayan - Sunday (May 10).
  • Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Eastern coasts of Southern Isabela - Sunday (May 10).
  • Moderate to Strong Winds (Gusts of up to 75 kph): Rest of Isabela and Cagayan, and Northern Aurora - Sunday (May 10).


As of 5:00 AM PhT today, May 09...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY NOUL (DODONG)
Location: Over the West-Central part of the Philippine Sea (near 14.1N 126.4E)
About: 265 km northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar...or 235 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 185 kph near the center...Gustiness: 220 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 50 to 220 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 595 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 130 km North from the center and 110 km south from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 22 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 17 kph
Towards: Eastern Luzon


TY NOUL (DODONG) is expected to move generally northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will be approaching the northeastern shores of Catanduanes this afternoon and shall be nearing the eastern shores of Isabela through Sunday morning (May 10). It will make landfall along the eastern shores of Isabela before noon of Sunday, May 11.

NOUL (DODONG) is still expected to gain strength within the next 24 hours...and afterwards it will start to gradually weaken due to the frictional effect of the mountain ranges of Northeastern Luzon to its circulation upon making landfall. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 205 kph on Sunday early morning (May 09).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Gaining strength as it approaches the eastern coasts of Isabela...about 165 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM MAY 10: 15.9N 123.6E @ 205kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns to the north-northwest and north...weakens after traversing northeastern Luzon...about 10 km west of Calayan, Cagayan [2AM MAY 11: 19.3N 121.4E @ 160kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns sharply to the north-northeast and accelerates, across Calayan and the Batanes Group of Islands...weakens significantly into a minimal typhoon...about 400 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes [2AM MAY 12: 23.7N 123.8E @ 120kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat May 09, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 14.1º N Lat 126.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 300 km NNE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 235 km E of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 285 km ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 310 km E of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 350 km ENE of Metro Naga





>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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