Friday, May 08, 2015

Typhoon NOUL (Dodong) Update #011


for Friday, 08 May 2015 [3:22 AM PhT]


Issued at: 1:30 AM PhT (17:30 GMT) Friday 08 May 2015
Next Update: Friday Morning, 08 May 2015

Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) has slowed down while gaining strength over the Philippine Sea...likely to pass close to the north of Catanduanes by late Saturday afternoon (May 9). The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Northern Aurora or Eastern Isabela by Monday morning (May 11)...with a Strike Probability of 40 to 50 percent.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon incl. the Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of NOUL (DODONG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None for the next 12 to 24 hours.


As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, May 07...1500 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY NOUL (DODONG)
Location: Over the Eastern Philippine Sea (near 11.8N 131.7E)
About: 685 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 845 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 175 kph near the center...Gustiness: 215 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 795 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 100 km North from the center and 85 km south from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 13 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 18 kph
Towards: Eastern Luzon


TY NOUL (DODONG) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward during the next 24 hours...turning northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will traverse the south-central part of the Philippine Sea on Friday evening and shall be passing near the northeastern coast of Catanduanes by Saturday afternoon and evening (May 09).

NOUL (DODONG) will continue to intensify throughout the forecast period. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 200 kph on Saturday evening (May 9).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

FRIDAY EVENING: Continues to intensify as it maintains its west-northwest track over the south-central part of the Philippine Sea...about 460 km east-southeast of Sorsogon City [8PM MAY 08: 13.0N 128.4E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SATURDAY EVENING: Passing close to the northeastern coastal areas of Catanduanes...intensifies further...about 275 km southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [8PM MAY 09: 15.3N 124.5E @ 200kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
SUNDAY EVENING: Over the northern part of Cagayan...weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it turns more northwesterly...about 35 km south of Aparri, Cagayn [8PM MAY 10: 18.0N 121.5E @ 100kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Thu May 07, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 11.8º N Lat 131.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 660 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 655 km ENE of Siargao Island
Distance 3: 855 km ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 880 km ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 945 km ESE of Metro Naga








>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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