for Tuesday, 05 May 2015 [7:39 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM NOUL UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday 05 May 2015
Next Update: Tuesday Evening, 05 May 2015
Tropical Storm NOUL continues to intensify while moving on a very-slow westerly track over Western Micronesia...Forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning. This storm is still too far to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 4 to 5 days.
Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon incl. the Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of NOUL (06W).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.
None for the next 4 to 5 days.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 AM PhT today, May 05...2100 GMT.
Classification/Name: TS NOUL (06W)
Location: Over the western part of the Federated States of Micronesia (near 9.6N 139.2E)
About: 120 km east of Colonia, Yap...or 1,475 km east-southeast of Eastern Visayas, PH
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 110 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 500 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 505 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West @ 05 kph
Forecast Movement: West @ 07 kph
Towards: Western Micronesia
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS NOUL (06W) is expected to continue moving westward slowly within the next 24 hours...turning west-northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will move across Western Micronesia, passing over or very near to the north of Yap State by early Wednesday morning...and shall approach the PAR early Thursday morning.
NOUL will continue to intensify throughout the forecast period. It is likely to become a Typhoon on Wednesday. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 150 kph by early Thursday morning (May 7).
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Passing slowly over or very near to the north of Yap State...becomes a strong TS...about 25 km northwest of Colonia, Yap [2AM MAY 06: 9.6N 137.9E @ 100kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns west-northwest while moving away from Western Micronesia...approaches the eastern border of PAR....becomes a Typhoon...about 1,095 km east-southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2AM MAY 07: 10.3N 135.7E @ 150kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to intensify after crossing the PAR....about 740 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2AM MAY 08: 11.7N 132.2E @ 185kph].
*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue May 05, 2015
Location of Center: Near 9.6º N Lat 139.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 460 km E of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 575 km ENE of Koror, Palau
Distance 3: 750 km SW of Hagatna, Guam
Distance 4: 1460 km E of Northeastern Mindanao, PH
Distance 5: 1685 km ESE of Bicol Region, PH
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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