Saturday, May 09, 2015

Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update #018


for Saturday, 09 May 2015 [2:53 PM PhT]

Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 018



Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Saturday 09 May 2015
Next Update: Sunday Early Morning, 10 May 2015

Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) has regained its previous strength as it tracks over an area of favorable atmospheric conditions with very warm sea surface temperatures...threat to Northeastern Luzon particularly Eastern Isabela and Northern Cagayan increases. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the eastern shores of Isabela or Cagayan by Sunday afternoon (May 10)...with a Strike Probability of 60 to 80 percent.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Northern Luzon incl. Batanes Islands should closely monitor the development of NOUL (DODONG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Catanduanes - today (May 09) through Sunday morning (May 10); Isabela and Cagayan - beginning Sunday morning (May 10) through Monday afternoon (May 11).
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Bicol Region - today (May 09) through Sunday morning (May 10); Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands, Aurora and Quirino - Sunday (May 10) through Monday (May 11).
  • Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Eastern coasts of Northern Isabela and Cagayan - Sunday (May 10).
  • Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Eastern coasts of Southern Isabela - Sunday (May 10).
  • Moderate to Strong Winds (Gusts of up to 75 kph): Rest of Isabela and Cagayan, and Northern Aurora - Sunday (May 10).


As of 5:00 PM PhT today, May 09...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY NOUL (DODONG)
Location: Over the West-Central part of the Philippine Sea (near 15.2N 124.7E)
About: 185 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 435 km southeast of Palanan, Isabela
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 185 kph near the center...Gustiness: 220 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 570 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 130 km North from the center and 110 km south from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 19 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 15 kph
Towards: Northeastern Luzon


TY NOUL (DODONG) is expected to continue to move northwestward at a normal speed for the next 24 hours...turning north-northwest to northward on the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will be approaching the eastern shores of Nothern Isabela Sunday afernoon (May 10) and shall make landfall near or over Isabela-Cagayan area by late Sunday afternoon. The typhoon shall then traverse Northeastern Cagayan passing over or very close to Aparri by midnight...and could be over the Balintang Channel on Monday morning.

NOUL (DODONG) will likely maintain its strength within the next 24 hours...and afterwards it will start to weaken due to the frictional effect of the mountain ranges of Northeastern Luzon to its circulation upon making landfall. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds retain at 185 kph tomorrow afternoon.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Sustains its strength as it approaches the eastern coast of Isabela...about 40 km north-northeast of Palanan, Isabela [2PM MAY 10: 17.3N 122.6E @ 185kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Turns to the north-northwest and north while emerging over the Balintang Channel...weakens after traversing Northeastern Luzon...about 55 km west-northwest of Basco, Batanes [2PM MAY 11: 20.6N 121.5E @ 150kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Recurves sharply to the northeast and accelerates, across the Batanes Group of Islands...weakens significantly into a strong Tropical Storm (TS)...about 620 km northeast of Basco, Batanes [2PM MAY 12: 24.6N 126.0E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat May 09, 2015
Location of Center: Near 15.2º N Lat 124.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 135 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 185 km NE of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
Distance 3: 240 km NE of Metro Naga
Distance 4: 230 km ENE of Daet, Camarines Norte
Distance 5: 300 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora





>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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