WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM SONAMU (AURING) UPDATE NUMBER 017
Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday 08 Jan 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday 08 Jan 2013
Sonamu (Auring) has regained Tropical Storm status while drifting very slowly south-southeast across the South China Sea.
Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) almost stationary over the Celebes Sea. Its weak center was located about 282 km southeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental (5.0N Lat 128.0E Lon)...with maximum winds of 30 km/hr near the center. This disturbance has a low chance (<30%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours, however, its rainbands together with the active Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will continue to bring moderate to heavy rains with thunderstorms along Mindanao especially the regions of SOCCSKSARGEN, ARMM and Davao today.
Residents and visitors along Eastern Malaysia should closely monitor the development of Sonamu (Auring).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 12 noon today, the center of Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) was located over the South China Sea...about 597 km south-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam or 725 km west-northwest of Brunei...currently moving south-southeastward with a slow forward speed of 7 km/hr in the general direction of Borneo.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Sonamu (Auring) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 400 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of TS Sonamu is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) is expected to move south to southeastward slowly during the next 24 to 48 hours...with a gradual turn to the east throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Sonamu (Auring) should continue moving across the open waters of the South China Sea through Thursday morning...approaching the coast of Western Borneo on Thursday evening...and making landfall over Western Borneo on Friday noon.
Sonamu (Auring) is forecast to weaken into a Tropical Depression on Thursday...and dissipate into an area of low pressure on Friday, as the system moves inland across Western Borneo.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
WEDNESDAY NOON: Maintains its Tropical Storm strength while moving slowly south-southeast across the South China Sea...about 699 km west-southwest of Brunei [12PM JAN 09: 4.5N 108.6E @ 65kph].
THURSDAY NOON: Turns southwestward as it weakens into a Tropical Depression while heading towards the west coast of Borneo...about 221 km west-northwest of Brunei [12PM JAN 10: 3.3N 109.6E @ 55kph].
FRIDAY NOON: Dissipates into an area of low pressure as it makes landfall over Western Borneo...about 373 km southwest of Brunei [12PM JAN 11: 2.9N 112.2E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the coastal areas of Southern Vietnam. Tropical Depression Conditions with light to moderate winds (05-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of TS Sonamu (Auring).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Tue January 08, 2013
Class/Name: TS Sonamu (Auring)
Location of Center: 5.7º N Lat 108.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 597 km (SSE) from Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
Distance 2: 725 km (WNW) from Brunei
Distance 3: 728 km (S) from Nha Trang, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: SSE @ 07 kph
Towards: Borneo
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 400 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS SONAMU (AURING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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