WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (LPA) STORMWATCH NUMBER 005
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday 11 Jan 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday 12 Jan 2013
Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) turns north-northwest closer to the east coast of Samar. Rainbands continues to spread across Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region.
This disturbance will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring 15-40 km/hr winds with "on-and-off" slight, moderate to sometimes heavy rains across Northern, Central and Eastern Luzon including Metro Manila tonight and tomorrow.
Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of 94W (LPA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6 PM today, the center of Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) was located over the Philippine Sea...about 330 km east-northeast of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte or 346 km east-southeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...currently moving north-northwest with a reduced forward speed of 19 km/hr in the general direction of the North Philippine Sea.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 35 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 94W is estimated to be heavy (250 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) is expected to continue moving north-northwest with a slight northwesterly bend during the next 12 to 24 hours...and will gradually turn to the north throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of 94W (LPA) will pass near the eastern coast of Northern Samar on Saturday morning...and very near the east coast of Catanduanes by late Saturday afternoon. It should be off the northern part of the Philippine Sea on Sunday evening...hundreds of kilometers to the east of the Batanes Islands.
94W is forecast to maintain its strength through the next 2 days. However, it could also become a weak Tropical Depression (TD) if development occurs.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY EVENING: Passing very near the east coast of Catanduanes...about 117 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes [6PM JAN 12: 14.5N 125.2E @ 35kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 356 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes [6PM JAN 13: 19.4N 125.2E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Samar, Leyte, Biliran and Camotes Islands, and Bicol Region. Tropical Disturbance Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (05-50 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of 94W (LPA).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri January 11, 2013
Class/Name: LPA 94W
Location of Center: 10.6º N Lat 128.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 330 km (ENE) from Surigao City
Distance 2: 346 km (ESE) from Borongan City
Distance 3: 379 km (ESE) from Tacloban City
Distance 4: 465 km (SE) from Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 5: 548 km (SE) from Sorsogon City
Distance 6: 565 km (SE) from Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 7: 582 km (SE) from Legazpi City
Distance 8: 656 km (SE) from Metro Naga
Distance 9: 713 km (SE) from Daet, CamNorte
Distance 10: 908 km (SE) from Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 35 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 55 kph
Present Movement: NNW @ 19 kph
Towards: Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [250 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 millibars (hPa)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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