WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM SONAMU (AURING) UPDATE NUMBER 010
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 06 Jan 2013
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Sunday 06 Jan 2013
Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) has slowed down and slightly gained strength while over the South China Sea.
Residents and visitors along Southern Vietnam, Western Malaysia and Southern Thailand should closely monitor the development of Sonamu (Auring).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) was located over the South China Sea...about 539 km southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam or 625 km southwest of Pagasa Island, Spratlys...currently moving west with a forward speed of 9 km/hr in the general direction of the South China Sea.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 85 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers from the center. Sonamu (Auring) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 390 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center and to the north of TS Sonamu is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) is expected to resume moving west-southwest slowly during the next 24 to 48 hours...with a drift to the south throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Sonamu (Auring) should remain over the South China Sea through Wednesday morning.
Sonamu (Auring) is forecast to hold its strength until this evening...before it starts to slowly decay through the next 3 days. It is likely to weaken into a minimal Tropical Storm on Wednesday morning.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
MONDAY MORNING: Starts to lose strength while moving west-southwest across the South China Sea...about 440 km south-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam [6AM JAN 07: 6.9N 107.4E @ 75kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Continues losing strength as it remains over the South China Sea...about 515 km south-southwest of Ho Chi Minh City [6AM JAN 08: 6.4N 105.6E @ 65kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Just barely a Tropical Storm, nears the coast of Western Malaysia...about 328 km east-southeast of the Malaysian-Thailand Border [6AM JAN 09: 5.6N 105.0E @ 65kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the coastal areas of Southern Vietnam. Tropical Depression Conditions with light to moderate winds (05-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the developing rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near, north and west of the center of TS Sonamu (Auring).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun January 06, 2013
Class/Name: TS Sonamu (Auring)
Location of Center: 7.3º N Lat 110.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 539 km (SE) from Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
Distance 2: 565 km (SSE) away from Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 625 km (SW) away from Pagasa Is., Spratlys
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph
Present Movement: West @ 9 kph
Towards: South China Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 390 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS SONAMU (AURING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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