WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (LPA) STORMWATCH NUMBER 002
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 10 Jan 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday 11 Jan 2013
Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) drifting across the Southern Philippine Sea. Rainbands still affecting Visayas, Mindanao and portions of Southern Bicol.
This disturbance will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring 15-35 km/hr winds with "on-and-off" slight, moderate to sometimes heavy rains across Southern and Eastern Luzon tonight through the weekend.
Residents and visitors along Mindanao, Visayas and Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of 94W (LPA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6 PM today, the center of Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) was located over the Southern Philippine Sea...about 308 km southeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental or 330 km east-southeast of Cateel, Davao Oriental...currently moving north-northeast with a slow forward speed of 07 km/hr.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 35 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 94W is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) is expected to move faster north-northwestward during the next 24 to 48 hours...with a gradual turn to the north and north-northeast throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of 94W (LPA) will pass near the eastern coast of Samar and Leyte on Friday evening...pass near the east coast of Catanduanes on Saturday evening...and should be off the northern part of the Philippine Sea on Sunday evening...hundreds of kilometers to the east of Santa Ana, Cagayan.
94W is forecast to maintain its strength through the next 3 days.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY EVENING: Near the east coast of Samar...about 236 km east-southeast of Borongan City [6PM JAN 11: 10.8N 127.4E @ 35kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Near the east coast of Catanduanes...about 151 km east-northeast of Virac [6PM JAN 12: 14.1N 125.5E @ 35kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Over the open waters of the Philippine Sea...turns north-northeast...about 390 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [6PM JAN 13: 18.6N 125.9E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the whole of Mindanao and Visayas...and approaching Bicol Region. Tropical Disturbance Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (05-50 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas near and to the north, and west of the center of 94W (LPA).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu January 10, 2013
Class/Name: LPA 94W
Location of Center: 5.8º N Lat 128.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 308 km (SE) from Mati City
Distance 2: 330 km (ESE) from Cateel, Davao Oriental
Distance 3: 382 km (ESE) from Metro Davao
Distance 4: 399 km (E) from General Santos City
Distance 5: 574 km (SSE) from Surigao City
Distance 6: 731 km (SSE) from Tacloban City
Distance 7: 745 km (SSE) from Borongan City
Distance 8: 995 km (SSE) from Legazpi City
Distance 9: 1,003 km (SSE) from Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 10: 1,062 km (SSE) from Metro Naga
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 35 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 55 kph
Present Movement: NNE @ 07 kph
Towards: Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 millibars (hPa)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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